[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 130349
HLSMLB
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092019
1149 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Indian River,
      Martin, Northern Brevard, Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Indian River, Martin,
      Northern Brevard, Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 490 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 430
      miles east-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 23.8N 74.5W
    - Storm Intensity 30 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 2 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

A tropical disturbance is nearly stationary over the southeastern
Bahamas this evening. It is forecast to gradually move northwest
across the Bahamas Islands on Friday, nearing the Florida peninsula on
Saturday. Confidence is growing for additional development of this
system, which has the potential to become a tropical storm as it
approaches East Central Florida. Once the system becomes better
organized, confidence will also increase regarding its forecast track
and intensity. Given the evolving threat and associated uncertainty, a
tropical storm watch has been issued for parts of East Central
Florida. This area includes the coastal counties Martin, Saint Lucie,
Indian River, and Brevard Counties. Additional watches may be needed
early Friday morning northward along the coast and over inland
sections.

Regardless of the development and exact track, there will be an
increased chance for tropical storm winds and gusts, along with
periods of heavy rain into this weekend. The threat is highest for
coastal counties where wind gusts could reach 55-65 mph in areas
closest to the storm. Multi-day rain totals of 2 to 4 inches are
forecast for the event, along with isolated peak amounts of 5 to 6
inches.

It is too early to determine exact impacts for specific locations. In
general, high winds and locally flooding rain are the main concerns,
especially in closer proximity of the core of the system. However,
conditions at the coast will be a significant concern too. The surf is
likely to become rough with some additional beach erosion. Rip
currents will become stronger and more numerous ahead of the storm.

Folks are encouraged to remain informed to changes in the forecast as
the event unfolds. Begin to factor the potential for tropical storm
force winds and heavy rains into your plans over the next few days.
Ensure that your emergency kit is restocked and ready.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. Potential impacts
include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
      swollen and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain and damaging
wind gusts extend well away from the center of the storm.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Kelly/Volkmer
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