[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 28.4N 79.0W at 04/0300 UTC or
80 nm E of Cape Canaveral Florida moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 25N-32N between 75W-81W. Dorian has
become a larger hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds
extend outward up to 175 miles. A turn toward the north is
forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of
Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east
coast and the Georgia coast through Wednesday night. The center of
Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South
Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning. See
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or at hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near 23.2N 96.4W at 04/0300
UTC or 90 nm ESE of La Pesca Mexico moving W at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 22N-27N between 96W-100W. A track toward the
west-northwest is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the
northeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday night. Data from the
reconnaissance plane indicate that the tropical storm force winds
are already near the coast of Mexico. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or
the website www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 19.1N 32.8W at 04/0300
UTC or 530 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 19N-24N between 29W-34W. Some slow
strengthening is possible over the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

A trough of low pressure, located just west of Bermuda, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some development of this
disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves northeast,
away from Bermuda.  Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.  Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and areas of
heavy rainfall are likely. The chance of a tropical cyclone to
develop during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 49W from 04N-22W, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-20N between
45W-51W. This tropical wave is well depicted by TPW imagery and
model diagnostics.

A east Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 62W from 03N-
15N, moving W at at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is inland
over Venezuela from 04N-08N between 61W-64W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the remainder of the wave axis.

A west Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W from 08N-
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Guinea near
10N14W to 06N20W to 07N26W. There is a break in the monsoon
trough at this point, and resumes from 14N36W to 14N43W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in sections above, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W
Africa from 05N-12N between 14W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Fernand in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of
the basin, with strong winds near Tropical Storm Fernand.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the SE Gulf and the Straits
of Florida from 23N-25N, east of 84W. Strong subsidence prevails
elsewhere in the Gulf.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move to 23.5N 97.5W Wed morning, move
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 24.0N 98.5W Wed
evening, to 24.5N 100.0W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening.
Weak high pres will then prevail across the basin over the weekend
to produce light to moderate winds and mild seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently over the Caribbean.

An inverted upper-level trough is over the central Caribbean near
75W. Scattered moderate convection is over Haiti from 18N-20N
between 73W-75W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon
trough is enhancing isolated moderate convection south of 10N
between 77W-83W, including portions of Panama.

The tropical wave near 80W will continue through the western
Caribbean, exiting the basin over Central America by the end of
the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the S central
Caribbean through Thu night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds
are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle
to moderate winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian,
Tropical Depression Eight, a surface trough, and a tropical
wave.

A surface trough extends across the central Atlantic from 32N38W
to 28N45W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.

$$
Formosa
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