[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian centered near 27.7N 78.7W at 03/2100 UTC or 90
nm E of Vero Beach Florida moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95
kt with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection prevails from 25N-31N between 75W-81W. Dorian has
become a larger hurricane. Hurricane- force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles from the center and tropical- storm- force winds
extend outward up to 175 miles. A turn toward the north is
forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of
Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east
coast and the Georgia coast tonight through Wednesday night. The
center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of
South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or at hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Fernand centered near 23.4N 95.9W at 03/2100 UTC
or 110 nm ESE of La Pesca Mexico moving W at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is currently extending from 22N-28N and west
of 93W. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast on
Wednesday, followed by a motion toward the northwest on Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to
cross the northeastern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or the website www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

A 1006 mb low is centered along a tropical wave near 16N29W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N-23N between
29W-32W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 330 nm
NE quad, 390 nm southern semicircle and 210 nm NW quad. A tropical
depression is expected to form later today while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next
48 hours is high.

A surface trough is located several hundred nm south of Bermuda
from 30N63W to 26N67W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
is noted north of 27N between 60W-66W. Some development of this
disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves northward, and a tropical depression could form by Thursday.
Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of this system. Areas of heavy
rainfall are likely in Bermuda, regardless of development. The
chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours
is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 08N-21N, moving W at
10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section above for details.

A tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 04N-22W, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 14N-16N between 45W-50W.
This tropical wave is well depicted by TPW imagery and model
diagnostics.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W from 03N-14N,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the part
of the wave that remains inland over South America.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 78W from
08N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the northern portion of the wave, affecting eastern Cuba and
adjacent waters at this time. An upper-level trough over the
Caribbean is enhancing the convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Guinea near
09N13W to 08N20W. There is a break in the monsoon trough at this
point, and resumes from 17N22W to 18N33W to 10N50W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N50W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in sections above, scattered moderate with embedded
isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa and
offshore from 05N-10N and east of 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Fernand in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of
the basin, with strong winds near Tropical Storm Fernand.
Elsewhere, a feeder band from Hurricane Dorian continues to
enhance scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the SE Gulf
and the Straits of Florida from 23N-25N, east of 88W. Strong
subsidence prevails elsewhere in the Gulf.

Fernand will move to 23.4N 96.5W Wed morning, 23.7N 97.5W
Wed afternoon, inland to 24.2N 98.4W Thu morning, and weaken to
a tropical depression near 25.0N 99.4W Thu afternoon. Fernand
will dissipate Fri afternoon. Weak high pres will then prevail
across the basin over the weekend to produce light to moderate
winds and mild seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently across the central Caribbean.

An inverted upper-level trough is over the central Caribbean near
70W. Moisture on the east side of the upper-trough axis is
enhancing scattered moderate convection from 09N-14N, east of 65W,
including the Windward Islands, NE Venezuela and Trinidad. This
convection is also being enhanced by the tropical wave along 60W.
In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
scattered moderate convection south of 10N between 77W-83W,
including portions of Panama. Latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh trades in the central Caribbean to the east of the wave
along 78W.

The tropical wave from eastern Cuba to Jamaica to near
the Panama/Colombia border will continue through the western
Caribbean, exiting the basin over Central America by the end of
the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the S central
Caribbean through Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds are expected
across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian, two
disturbances, and three tropical waves.

A surface trough extends across the central Atlantic from 32N38W
to 27N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.

$$

ERA
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