[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 29.2N 79.5W at 04/0900 UTC or
80 nm E of Daytona Beach Florida moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 27N-32N between 77W-81W. Hurricane-
force winds extend outward up to 50 nm from the center and
tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 nm. A
northwest or north-northwest motion is expected through this
morning. A turn toward the north is forecast by this evening,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning.
On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously
close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through
tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the
coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through
Friday morning. Some weakening is expected during the next couple
of days, and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or at hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near 23.1N 96.8W at 04/0900
UTC or 70 nm SE of La Pesca Mexico moving W at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 23N-28N between 95W-101W. A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected today, and the center of
Fernand is forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico
later today or tonight. A slight increase in intensity is
possible before landfall. Once inland, rapid weakening is
expected, and Fernand should dissipate on Thursday. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or the website www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle centered near 19.6N 33.6W at 04/0900
UTC or 590 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 19N-24N between 30W-35W. A northwest
motion is forecast to continue through Friday, with an increase
in forward speed expected late in the week. Slight strengthening
is forecast during the next 48 hours. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details.

A trough of low pressure, located just west of Bermuda, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some development of this
disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves northeast,
away from Bermuda.  Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.  Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and areas of
heavy rainfall are likely. The chance of a tropical cyclone to
develop during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 04N-22W, moving W at
10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 14N-21N
between 47W-52W. This tropical wave is well depicted by TPW
imagery and model diagnostics.

An east Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 62W from 03N-
15N, moving W at at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
along the coast of Venezuela from 09N-11N between 59W-62W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the wave
axis.

A west Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W from 08N-
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the SW Caribbean from 10N-12N between 78W-84W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the remainder of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Guinea-
Bissau near 12N15W to 07N20W to 07N28W. There is a break in the
monsoon trough at this point, and resumes from 14N35W to 12N48W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in sections above, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W
Africa from 05N-13N between 15W-21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Fernand in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of
the basin, with strong winds near Tropical Storm Fernand.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the SE Gulf and the Straits
of Florida from 23N-25N, east of 84W. Strong subsidence prevails
elsewhere in the Gulf.

Tropical Storm Fernand near 23.1N 96.8W 1000 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving W at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
Fernand will move inland to 23.5N 97.9W this afternoon, weaken to
a tropical depression near 24.0N 99.2W Thu morning, and dissipate
inland Thu afternoon. High pressure will then prevail across the
basin over the weekend to produce light to moderate winds and mild
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently over the Caribbean.

An inverted upper-level trough is over the central Caribbean near
75W. Scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba from 18N-20N
between 74W-77W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon
trough is enhancing convection south of 12N.

The tropical wave near 81W will continue through the western
Caribbean, exiting the basin over Central America Fri. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse in the S central Caribbean into Thu night.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected across the
eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
prevailing over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian,
Tropical Storm Gabrielle, a surface trough, and a tropical wave.

A surface trough extends across the central Atlantic from 32N38W
to 27N47W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.

$$
Formosa
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