[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...Central Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will extend from 31N45W to 27N53W to 26N63. Gale
force winds will develop behind the front, north of 29N between
45W- 49W, with seas ranging between 13-18 ft. These conditions
will continue through early Wednesday. See the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 41W S of
16N, is moving west at 10 kt. This wave is in the leading edge of
a dry/dusty Saharan airmass and is well depicted in satellite
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-16N
between 39W-41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 50W S of 12N,
is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen along
the wave from 07N-11N between 48W-51W.

An eastern Carribbean tropical wave with an axis along 62W S of
18N, is moving west at 10 kt. This wave is also depicted well in
satellite imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted along the northern portion of the wave from 15N-17N in
addition to the southern Windward Islands from 11N-12N between
61W-63W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 76W S of 21N,
is moving west at 10 kt. A well defined upper level low centered
over Hispaniola is enhancing convection across the area surrounding
this wave, mostly in the Windward Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 09N40W, then continues
W of a tropical wave from 09N42W to 09N50W. The ITCZ continues W
of another tropical wave near 09N51W to the coast of Guyana near
06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered convection is noted along and south of
the monsoon trough from 04N-09N and E of 25W to the coast of
Africa. Scattered convection is also noted along and north of the
ITCZ from 01N-11N between 29W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered ridge continues to sit across the Gulf as an upper
level low sits over the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a
warm front is lifting north along the Florida Panhandle westward
into the NW Gulf, from 30N84W to 27N95W. A surface trough is also
slowly moving northward across the central Gulf, analyzed from
22N91W to 27N89W. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the
upper low and the surface trough, is noted along and south of
this boundary from 22N- 30N between 85W- 95W. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted in the western Bay of Campeche. A surface
trough is off the coast of Florida from 26N83W to 29N84W. The
latest scatterometer data depicts moderate ESE winds in the NW
Gulf and moderate easterly winds in the SE Gulf. Calm to light
winds prevail elsewhere.

An upper level low over the Bay of Campeche is supporting active
thunderstorm activity across the central Gulf. A strong cold front
will move into the NW Gulf early Thursday, then extend from
central Florida to the southern Bay of Campeche by Friday night.
Gale force winds are expected W of the front along the coasts of
Tamaulipas and Veracruz Thursday through Friday.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

An upper level low is centered over Hispaniola enhancing
convection Haiti and the Windward Passage. Another upper level
low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula along with a surface
trough along the eastern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala coast from
16N89W to 21N87W. This is igniting convection across the NW
Caribbean, from 17N- 21N and W of 86W. Isolated thunderstorms are
observed near the Cayman Islands. Meanwhile, in the SW Caribbean,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring due
to enhancement from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. This
convective activity is noted S of 12N between 76W-84W. A
relatively dry air is noted across the remainder of the basin. The
latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north
of Colombia and Venezuela with moderate trades across the central
basin. Gentle trades prevail elsewhere.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected near the coast
of Colombia today. Moderate trade winds will prevail across most
of the Caribbean through Friday night. Reinforcing large N-NE
swell will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters
and all Caribbean passages Wednesday through Friday.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details about the tropical waves
moving across the basin in addition to the gale warning.

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from
31N79W to the northeast Florida coast near 30N81W. Showers are
seen along the front. A 1018 mb high pressure is analyzed near
30N73W and a 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed near 29N70W. A
cold front continues to sweep across the central and eastern
Atlantic, entering the area near 31N27W and extends westward to
25N41W to 24N61W. Scattered showers are noted along the front.
Another cold front has entered the waters in the central Atlantic,
stretching from 31N53W to 31N68W. Showers are also seen along this
boundary. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
southwesterly winds N of 27N between 23W-63W.

Reinforcing high pressure will build southward across the region
through Thursday with freshening winds. Reinforcing large long
period N-NE swell will move into the NE waters Wednesday, and
reach the SE waters and NE Caribbean on Thursday, with seas
expected to peak at 10 to 11 ft Thursday night through Friday
morning.


$$
AKR
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