[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...Central Atlantic Gale Warning...

A central Atlantic cold front on 29/1800 UTC will extend from
31N43W to 27N50W to 26N60W to 29N70W. Gale force winds are
forecast N of 28N E of front to 42W, with seas 12-16 ft. These
conditions will last six hours. On 30/1200 UTC a cold front will
extend from 31N37W to 25N45W to 23N65W. Gale force winds are again
forecast N of 24N SE of front with seas 12-17 ft. This event will
last twelve hours. See the latest High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W/41W S of 18N,
moving west at 10 kt. This wave is in the leading edge of a
dry/dusty Saharan airmass and is well depicted in satellite
imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-17N
between 36W-44W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W/51W S of 12N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N
between 46W-55W.

An eastern Carribbean tropical wave with is along 62W/63W S of
18N, moving west at 10 kt. This wave is also well depicted in
satellite imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of
the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W S of 21N, moving
west at 10 kt. The northern portion of the wave has isolated
moderate convection over E Cuba from 18N-21N between 74W-78W. the
southern portion of the wave has scattered moderate convection
from 09N-11N between 74W-79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N20W to 04N26W. The ITCZ extends from 04N26W to
09N39W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 09N43W to
09N49W. The ITCZ continues W of another tropical wave near 09N52W
to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is
along the monsoon trough from 02N-09N between 05W-26W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 26W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Jacksonville Florida to the mouth
of the Mississippi River to near Corpus Christi Texas. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. A surface
trough is also over the central Gulf from 27N90W to 23N94W.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Thu, then
extend from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche
by Thu evening, and from central Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by Fri morning. Gale force winds and building seas are
expected W of the front along the coasts of Tamaulipas and
Veracruz Thu through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

In addition, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the far SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 79W-84W, mostly due
the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected near the coast
of Colombia today. Moderate trade winds will prevail across most
of the Caribbean through Fri night. Reinforcing large N-NE swell
will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters and all
Caribbean passages Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for an Atlantic gale warning. Also
refer to details about the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends over the western Atlantic from 31N75W
to Jacksonville Florida near 31N82W. Scattered showers are within
60 m of the front. A 1019 mb high pressure is over the W Atlantic
near 29N75W. A 1000 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic
near 31N46W. A cold front extends W from the low to 28N54W to
30N68W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm S of the front. A cold
front is over the E Atlantic from 31N30W to 23N46W to 21N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front E of
38W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of this front.

Over the western Atlantic, reinforcing high pressure will build
southward across the region through Thu with freshening winds.
Large long period N-NE swell will move into the northern waters
Wed, and reach the southern waters and NE Caribbean on Thu, with
seas expected to peak at 10 to 11 ft Wed night through Fri.

$$
Formosa

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