[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...Central Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1000 mb surface low is expected to move to near 31N50W by early
Tuesday, with associated cold front extending from the low to
29N57W to beyond 31N70W. Gale force winds are expected north of
29N between 50W-53W, with seas ranging between 13-16 ft. These
conditions will continue through early Wednesday. See the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 38W S of
16N, moving west at 10 kt. This wave is in the leading edge of a
dry/dusty Saharan airmass and is well depicted in satellite
imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
100 nm of the wave axis from 05N- 15N .

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 61W S of 18N,
moving west at 10 kt. This wave is also depicted well in
satellite imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted along the northern portion of the wave from 15N-17N in
addition to the southern Windward Islands from 11N-12N between
61W-63W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 75W is moving
west at 10 kt. A well defined upper level low centered over
Hispaniola is enhancing the area surrounding this wave. At this
time, scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of
the wave north of 18N across the Windward Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
13N17W to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 08N35W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 07N40W to 10N59W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from
02N-07N and E of 23W to the coast of Africa. Scattered convection
is also noted along and north of the ITCZ from 07N-11N between
40W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered ridge continues to sit across the Gulf as an upper
level low sits over the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a
stationary front continues to linger across the northern Gulf of
Mexico, extending from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to 25N93W.
Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the upper low, is
noted along and south of this boundary from 23N-28N between 85W-
93W. Otherwise, fair conditions prevail across the rest of the
basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate ESE winds in
the NW Gulf and moderate easterly winds in the SE Gulf. Calm to
light winds prevail elsewhere.

Relatively weak high pressure across the area will allow for
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf through
Tuesday as the remnants of a front shift northwestward across the
area to inland the northwest and north- central Gulf Wednesday.
The upper level low will weaken as it moves to the northwest
Yucatan on Wednesday, and the associated convective activity
will shift to the central Gulf. A strong cold front will move
into the northwest Gulf early Thursday, then quickly push
southeastward to central Florida and extend into the eastern Bay
of Campeche early Friday. It will weaken as it reaches SW Florida
to the eastern Bay of Campeche Friday night. Near gale to gale
force northerly winds will follow in behind the front across much
of the west- central waters and along and offshore the coast of
Veracruz. The front will stall and continue to weaken through
Saturday night. Winds and seas will subside behind the front
Friday through Saturday night, except in the Bay of Campeche where
strong northerly winds will remain.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

An upper level low is centered over Hispaniola enhancing
convection Haiti and the Windward Passage. Another upper level
low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula, enhancing convection
across the NW Caribbean, from 16N-21N and W of 86W. A relatively
dry air is noted across the remainder of the basin. The latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north of
Colombia and Venezuela with moderate trades across the central
basin. Gentle trades prevail elsewhere.

The gradient associated with high pressure located over the
western Atlantic will allow for fresh to locally strong trades to
occur along and near the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through
Tuesday morning before diminishing to fresh speeds in the
afternoon. These winds will pulse back up to fresh to locally
strong speeds Tuesday evening before diminishing early on
Wednesday. Otherwise, moderate trades will remain across the
central and eastern Caribbean through Saturday night, while
gentle trades remain over the northwestern Caribbean. Large long-
period northeast swell propagating through the central Atlantic
and into the Caribbean Passages will slowly subside through early
Tuesday evening. A large set of large north-northeast swell will
propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters and northeast
Caribbean passages Wednesday through Friday and begin to slowly
subside Friday night through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details about the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from
31N77W to the northeast Florida coast near 30N81W. Showers are
seen along the front. A 1019 mb high pressure is analyzed near
29N67W. A cold front continues to sweep across the central and
eastern Atlantic, entering the area near 31N28W and extends
westward to 26N39W to 25N60W. Scattered showers are noted along
the front. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
southwesterly winds N of 27N between 23W-63W.

Relatively weak high pressure will maintain moderate east to
southeast winds across the region through early Wednesday before
stronger high pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday and
Thursday. This will increase the winds to mainly fresh speeds
across the area. A weakening cold front will move over the far
northwest part of the area late Thursday night into Friday. It
will reach east-central Florida Friday night, then become
stationary through Saturday night. Large long- period northeast
swell propagating through the waters S of 25N and east of the
Bahamas will slowly subside through early Tuesday evening. A
large set of long-period north to northeast swell will begin to
propagate through the waters of the northeast part of the area on
Wednesday, and reach the southeast waters and northeastern
Caribbean beginning late Wednesday night and through Thursday.
This swell will significantly build seas over these waters
Thursday night through Friday morning before gradually subsiding
through Saturday night.


$$
AKR

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