[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Depression Seventeen is now T.S. Olga...

Tropical Storm Olga is centered near 26.3N 93.2W at 25/2100 UTC
or 230 nm S of Lake Charles Louisiana moving NNE at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 22N-30N between 88W-94W. Olga is expected
to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low with
gale-force winds during the next few hours before the center
reaches the Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Olga
should move over the northern Gulf coast late tonight or early
Saturday and then move through the Mississippi and Ohio River
Valleys later Saturday through Sunday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front extends across the western Gulf of Mexico
from a 1011 mb surface low near 30N93W to 26N94W to 21N94W to
20N96W. Gale-force winds are presently NW of the front. The front
will continue to push rapidly southward through the SW Gulf
tonight. These conditions are expected through early Saturday.
See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Tropical Storm Pablo has formed across the east Atlantic...

Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 35.8N 32.2W at 25/2100 UTC
or 280 nm WSW of the Azores moving ESE at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Pablo is expected to become an
extratropical cyclone in a couple of days to the northeast of the
Azores. On this track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or
over the Azores this weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from
20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is very well
defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery,
and model diagnostics. Scattered showers are noted along the wave
axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from
14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in
satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N
between 45W- 50W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W from
05N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a dry environment,
therefore no convection is present in the wave's area at this
time.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 79W
from 21N south, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted between 71W-85W. This activity is enhanced
by large scale upper-level cyclonic flow currently in the area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 13N17W to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 11N42W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, no significant convection is noted along these boundaries
at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on the
Tropical Storm Olga and the Gale Warning currently in effect.

The far eastern Gulf is free of significant convection east of
88W. In the upper-levels, large scale upper-level anticyclonic
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence is over this
area.

A cold front extends from a 1011 mb surface low near 30N93W to
26N94W to 21N94W to 20N96W. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection prevails to the east of the front and T.S. Olga between
88W-94W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly
winds across the eastern half of the basin.

Gale force winds W of the front will subside by early Saturday.
The front will then reach 30N89W to eastern Bay of Campeche
Saturday morning, then begin to stall from the central Florida
Panhandle to eastern Bay of Campeche Sunday morning. Weak high
pressure will move to the N central Gulf coast Monday as the
front dissipates across NE portions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper level low is centered over the west-central Caribbean
enhancing the convection near the tropical wave. Latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds within
90 nm east of the tropical wave axis, while moderate trades
prevail across the remainder of the basin.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the
Caribbean through Tue night. A tropical wave over the Caribbean
near 79W will continue to produce very active weather as it moves
W and reaches Central America Sunday. A second tropical wave will
reach the Lesser Antilles tonight and approach Puerto Rico by
Saturday night. Large long period NE swell will reach the Leeward
Islands early Sunday, and continue through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W
to 28N80W. No significant convection is related to this feature at
this time. To the east, another stationary front extends across
the east Atlantic from 31N27W to 21N47W. Scattered showers are
noted within 90 nm east of the front.

High pressure across the NW Atlantic will generally maintain
moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the forecast waters through
mid week. Large long period NE swell will cause seas to build in
SE waters E of 70W early Sunday through Monday.

$$

ERA
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