[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251817
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
217 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Depression Seventeen...

Tropical Depression Seventeen is located over the west Gulf of
Mexico near 25.6N 94.4W on 25/1500 UTC, moving N at 13 kt. T.D.
Seventeen has max sustained winds 30 kt gust 40 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 20N-28N between 89W-94W.
A motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed
is expected this afternoon through Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of the cyclone should move across the NW Gulf
of Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf
coast tonight or Saturday morning. The cyclone is then expected
to merge with a cold front and become a post- tropical low with
gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf coast.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the depression this afternoon. For more information,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has reached the
Gulf of Mexico and extends South into the Bay of Campeche near
22N96W. Gale force winds are presently NW of the front. The front
will push rapidly southward into the SW Gulf today. Northerly
gale force winds are expected to continue W of the front through
tonight. See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. The wave is very well defined in satellite
imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model diagnostics.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-16N between 20W-26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-13N
between 42W-46W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 20N51W, moving W at
5 kt. The wave is in a dry environment, and no showers are seen.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 21N south,
moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
12N-19N between 71W-78W. Convection is also being enhanced by
large scale upper-level cyclonic flow over the central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 12N16W to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N25W to 10N41W,
then W of the tropical wave near 09N46W to the coast of N Brazil
near 04N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N
between 27W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on the Tropical
Depression Seventeen.

The far eastern Gulf is free of significant convection east of
88W. In the upper-levels, large scale upper-level anticyclonic
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence is over the SE
Gulf.

The cold front extends from a 1011 mb near 17N94W south to 22N97W.
To the east, warm front extends 29N91W and along the northern Gulf
coast to the FL Panhandle. Further east of the front, a 1009 mb
low pressire is now Tropical Depression Seventeen.

A strong cold front has blasted off the Texas and NE Mexican
coasts this morning, with northerly gales spreading southward
behind it. Well defined low pressure ahead of the front has formed
into Tropical Depression Seventeen, near 25.6N 94.4W at 1500 UTC,
1006 mb moving N at 14 kt. The Tropical Depression will move
northward and into SW Louisiana coastal waters early this evening,
and begin to merge with the cold front as it moves N-NE and
inland across central Louisiana tonight. The cold front is
expected to reach from 30N92W to 18N95W this evening, with gales
spreading to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico, before gales gradually
diminish overnight. The front will then reach 30N89W to eastern
Bay of Campeche Sat morning, then begin to stall from the central
Florida Panhandle to eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Weak
high pressure will move to the N central Gulf coast Mon as the
front dissipates across NE portions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near
18N79W. Aside from the convection between 70W-78W mentioned in
the Tropical Waves section above, isolated moderate convection is
over the western Caribbean and Central America W of 78W. Latest
ASCAT pass shows some fresh winds N of N Colombia, and moderate
winds elsewhere over the basin.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
through Tue night. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will
continue to produce very active weather as it moves W and reaches
Central America Sun. A second tropical wave will reach the Lesser
Antilles this evening and approach Puerto Rico Sat night. Large
long period NE swell will reach the Leeward Islands early Sun, and
continue through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front over the W Atlantic extends from 30N68W to
Vero Beach Florida near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm
of the front. A strong cold front is over the central Atlantic
from 30N28W to 23N36W to 20N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 240 nm S of the front E of 40W. Of note in the upper levels,
a large upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 37N35W
supporting the cold front.

High pressure across the NW Atlantic will maintain moderate to
fresh easterly winds over the forecast waters through Sat night.
Large long period NE swell will cause seas to build in SE waters E
of 70W early Sun through Mon.

$$

Torres
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