[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Post-tropical Cyclone Olga and Gulf of Mexico Gale...

Olga has become a post-tropical low along the cold front in the
Gulf of Mexico. Olga is centered near 27.8N 92.2W as of 26/0300
UTC, moving NE at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 kt,
and minimum central pressure is near 999 mb. Numerous strong
convection is from 27.5N-30.5N between 89W-92.5W. Gale force
winds of 35-45 kt are occurring within 120 nm in the western
semicircle and within 20 nm in the eastern semicircle. The cold
front extends from Vermilion Bay Louisiana to Olga to 20N92W to
18N93.5W as of 26/0300 UTC. A linear band of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of a line from 27N90W
to 21.5N92.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the southern Bay of Campeche south of 19.5N between
92.5W-96W. Gale force winds are also occurring in the western Bay
of Campeche in the waters off of Veracruz. Elsewhere west of the
cold front, NNW near gales of 27-33 kt cover the western Gulf.

Olga will continue to produce gales over the northern Gulf of
Mexico through about 26/0900 UTC until it moves inland along the
north-central U.S. Gulf Coast. The gales in the waters off
Veracruz will also last until about 26/0900 UTC. Winds over most
of the Gulf are forecast to diminish to below 25 kt by this
afternoon. See the final NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. See the latest
High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...Tropical Storm Pablo churning over east Atlantic...

Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 35.5N 31.1W at 26/0300 UTC
or 250 nm SW of the Azores moving ESE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. On the forecast track, the small core of
Pablo will pass near or over the Azores by Saturday night. Pablo
is expected to become extratropical after it passes the Azores.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 25W from
19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is very well
defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery,
and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is within 150
nm of the wave axis from 03N-09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N46W to
03N48W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in
satellite imagery. Isolated showers are within 150 nm of the wave
axis from 07N-13N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 58W south of
21N, moving W around 15 kt, but the wave has become very weak and
difficult to track. The wave is in a dry environment and no
convection is present in the wave's area at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 80W from
09N-21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 13N-18.5N between 74W-81W. This
activity is being enhanced by an upper-level low over the NW
Caribbean that is to the west of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to
08N43W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered moderate convection is seen within 180
nm S and 240 N of the ITCZ between 30W-40W. Similar convection is
noted within 120 nm of the coast of Africa from 07N-13N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on two gale
areas over the western Gulf of Mexico and for all weather west of
89W. In the eastern Gulf, some scattered moderate showers and
tstorms are near the Florida Keys. Fresh SE winds are over the SE
Gulf. Strong SE winds cover the NE Gulf.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga will move to near 31.8N 90.4W Sat
morning and to near 38.0N 88.5W Sat evening. Gale force winds
near Olga and along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz will subside
to below 25 kt this afternoon and to below 15 kt early Sun
morning. The cold front will begin to stall from the central
Florida Panhandle to eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Weak
high pressure will move to the N central Gulf coast Mon as the
front dissipates.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave along
80W.

An upper-level low is centered over the NW Caribbean near 19N84W
enhancing the convection near and east of the tropical wave.
Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades over the central
Caribbean between 66W-76W with moderate winds elsewhere.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
through Tue night. Winds will be fresh over the central Caribbean
and locally strong along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
through Tue. A tropical wave over the Caribbean near 80W will
continue to produce very active weather as it moves W and reaches
Central America Sun. A second tropical wave will reach the Lesser
Antilles this evening and approach Puerto Rico Sat night. Large
long period NE swell will reach the Leeward Islands early Sun, and
continue through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

A dissipating stationary front extends across the west Atlantic
from 31N69W to 27N79W, with no significant convection noted. An
area of high precipitable water content extends across the Old
Bahama Channel. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen
from 22N-26N between 76W-82W, with isolated moderate convection
elsewhere from 20N-27N west of 72W. To the east, a stationary
front extends from 31N27W to 25N34W to 22N43W. A surface trough
extends from 24N32W to 20N40W to 18N47W. Scattered showers are
60-180 nm SE of the front E of 30W. Isolated showers are near the
surface trough.

High pressure across the NW Atlantic will generally maintain
moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the forecast waters W of 65W
through mid-week. Large long period N swell related to the
extratropical low surrounding Pablo is currently affecting waters
north of 22N between 22W-56W. An altimeter pass from 26/0013 UTC
shows significant wave heights of 15-19 ft from 27N-31N between
36W-39W. Wave heights of 12-17 ft will affect the waters from
22N-31N between 30W-51W today due to the swell. NE swell of 5 to 7
ft will spread westward to 70W early Sunday and last through
Monday.

$$
Hagen
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