[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic waters from 32N44W
to 26N59W to 26N64W, continuing as a stationary front to 28N74W.
Gale force winds are occurring in the vicinity of the front from
29N-31N between 68W-70W. Seas in this areas are ranging between
13-17 ft. These conditions will continue through early this
morning, when the stationary front is expected to begin weakening.
Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop along
the frontal boundary mentioned above, over the central Atlantic
Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores by tonight. Gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
westward, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form on
Tuesday or Wednesday before upper-level winds become unfavorable.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W from
03N-16N, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance
depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 10N-15N between 25W-31W. Scattered showers are elsewhere
along and within 390 nm E of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58/59W
from 03N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. This wave is noted in
satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-15N between 52W-58W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere from 07N-16N between 51W-61W. This tropical wave will
increase moisture and rainfall across the Lesser Antilles later
today.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 20N71W to
07N73W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen where the wave intersects the East Pacific monsoon trough
near the N coast of Colombia from 06N-11N between 71W-78W.
Isolated showers are near the northern end of the wave axis where
it runs through Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 10N25W to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W
to 06N47W to 08N55W. Excluding the convection mentioned above in
the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the far E Atlantic from 05N-14N between 10W-
21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 23N95W to
18N92W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 17N-20.5N
between 94W-95.5W. Scattered showers are elsewhere near the
trough axis. In the upper levels, a N-S upper-level trough is
along 90W. Upper level diffluence east of the trough is producing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms along with broken to
overcast multi-layered clouds over the eastern Gulf, mainly E of
88.5W, from the Yucatan Channel to the west coast of Florida. The
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds over much of the eastern
Gulf, with moderate winds elsewhere. A surface trough extends over
the NW Caribbean from W Cuba near 23N82W to the Yucatan Peninsula
near 19.5N87.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is over the Yucatan Channel.

A weak low pressure trough over the SW Gulf will dissipate today.
A cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, then extend
from near the Florida Big Bend area to the Bay of Campeche Tue. NE
winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the
western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected
offshore Veracruz early this week. The front will weaken and stall
over the eastern Gulf Wed and Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See the section
above for details.

A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from western Cuba
near 23N82W to near 19.5N87.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted in the NW Caribbean Sea to the NW of a
line from 16N87W to 22N82W, and inland over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and northern Guatemala. The latest
ASCAT pass shows fresh trades south of 15.5N between 61W-75W,
with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.

A weak tropical wave near 72W will move westward into the western
Caribbean today, then reach Central America on Tuesday. Another
tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles today, cross the
eastern Caribbean Tuesday, then move into the central Caribbean
Wednesday. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail across
much of the region for the next several days. Northerly swell
generated by a cold front north of the area will cause seas to
build east of the Lesser Antilles early this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic waters. The warning
is forecast to expire before 1200 UTC this morning. Refer to the
section above for details. Two tropical waves are in the tropical
Atlantic. See the section above for details.

The front mentioned above in the Special Features section and a
mid to upper-level low near 29N71W are inducing scattered
moderate convection from 22N-32N between 67W-73W. Elsewhere within
60 nm S and 90 nm N of the front between 54W-67W, scattered
moderate convection is seen. Similar convection is seen farther
east from 30N-32N between 40W-47W. The latest ASCAT pass shows
that the strong to near gale force winds are occurring north of a
line from 26N80W to 26N58W to 32N47W. Winds are gentle or moderate
from that line southward to 20N. Surface ridging prevails over the
eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 36N20W.

Expect strong to near gale force NE to E winds and very rough
seas north of the stationary front into Tuesday, with some gale
conditions expected N of 28N between 67W and 70W before sunrise
this morning. This stationary front will lift northward and
weaken today, then dissipate by Tue. NE swell will propagate S
across the remaining waters east of the Bahamas into Tue, then
gradually decay through mid week. Another cold front will move off
the SE U.S. coast Tue afternoon and approach the NW Bahamas and
begin to stall Wed night and Thu.

$$
Hagen
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