[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071811
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
211 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores is producing gale-force winds
to the north of its center. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics during the next day or two, and this
system could become a tropical or subtropical storm on Tuesday or
Wednesday while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are
expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wed night.
There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48
hours. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 14W from 17N southward near
the coast of Africa, moving W around 10 kt. TPW and model guidance
indicate the wave well near the area. Scattered moderate convection
extends 180 nm on either side of the wave from 03N-18N between 12W-
18W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W from
16Ns southward, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and wave model
guidance depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 10N-15N between 28W-32W. Scattered showers are tstorms
elsewhere along the monsoon trough.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 59W from
20N southward, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is noted in satellite
imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is seen
250 nm on either side of the wave affecting the Lesser Antilles
and northern coast of Guyana and Venezuela.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N72W to
06N74W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen where
the wave intersects the East Pacific monsoon trough and south of
coast of Haiti.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 12N16W to 08N38W. The ITCZ continues from 08N38W to 09N55W.
Excluding the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves
section, scattered moderate convection is over the Atlantic from
02N-12N between 18W-22W and along the ITCZ from 08N-12N between
43W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the upper levels, a N-S upper-level trough is along 88W. Upper
level diffluence east of the trough is producing scattered showers
and isolated tstorms along with broken to overcast multi-layered
clouds over the eastern Gulf, mainly E of 88W, from the Yucatan
Channel to the west coast of Florida. This is enhancing scattered
showers north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the northern Gulf
coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana. The latest ASCAT
pass shows fresh E winds over much of the eastern Gulf, with
moderate winds elsewhere. A surface trough extends over the NW
Caribbean from W Cuba near 21N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula near
16N88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the
Yucatan Channel from 21N to the Gulf of Honduras. To the west, a
surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 18N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is 18N-22N and W of 94W.

A weak low pressure trough over the SW Gulf will dissipate tonight.
Another trough extending from the Yucatan Peninsula across western
Cuba will lift northward across the SE Gulf tonight into Tue. A
cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, then extend from
near the Florida Big Bend region to the Bay of Campeche on Tue.
NE winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the
western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected
offshore of Veracruz today through Tue. The front will weaken
across the eastern Gulf Wed through Thu. Another cold front will
move into the NW Gulf Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See the section
above for details.

A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from western Cuba
near 21N84W to near 16N88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted in the NW Caribbean Sea from the Gulf of
Honduras north along the Yucatan Channel to 21N and W of 81W. In
the south, scattered showers are seen near the monsoon trough
from 09N-13N between 78W-82W. In the eastern Caribbean, scattered
showers and tstorms are seen in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. ASCAT pass shows fresh trades south of 12N and W of 68W and
fresh to strong southerly flow south of the trough in the NW
Caribbean from 18N-21N between 82W-86W with gentle to moderate
winds in the Southwest Caribbean Sea.

A weak tropical wave over the central Caribbean will move
westward across the western Caribbean today through Tue, then
reach Central America on Wed. Another tropical wave will reach the
Lesser Antilles later today, cross the eastern Caribbean on Tue,
then move into the central Caribbean Wed. Moderate to fresh trades
will prevail across much of the region for the next several days.
Large N to NE swell will build seas east of the Lesser Antilles
today through Tue. Then, seas will subside Wed through Fri as the
swell decays over the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are in the tropical Atlantic. See the section
above for details.

A cold front extends across the Atlantic waters from a 1018 mb low
pressure centered near 31N43W to a second 1018 mb low pressure near
26N56W, then curves northwest to 27N69W to a dissipating front near
30N73W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 80 to 160 nm southeast
of the boundary between the two areas of low pressure, and scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from 27N-31N between 61W-73W.
A mid to upper-level low near 29N74W is inducing scattered moderate
convection from 23N-28N between 69W-73W. A surface trough extends
from the north central Bahamas near 26N75W to the Straits of Florida
into the NW Caribbean Sea. The trough is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system
is possible on Tuesday when it moves over the far western Atlantic.
The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal boundary and
developing low off the east coast of the United States by Wednesday,
and no further development is anticipated after that time. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the the southern Florida peninsula during
the next day or so.

The latest ASCAT pass shows that the strong to near gale force
winds are occurring north of the front. Winds are gentle or
moderate from that line southward to 14N. Surface ridging prevails
over the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered
near 35N21W.

A nearly stationary front extends across the northern waters from
26N65W to 30N74W. Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
persist north of the front today, along with very rough seas and
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will lift northward
and weaken through tonight, then dissipate by Tue. NE swell will
continue impacting the remaining waters east of the Bahamas into
Tue, then gradually decay through mid week. Elsewhere, a surface
trough extending across the NW Bahamas will move NW today through
Tue, with fresh to strong winds and building seas expected east of
the trough over the northern waters. Another cold front will move
off the SE U.S. coast Tue, approach the NW Bahamas Wed through
Thu, then dissipate over the central Bahamas on Fri.

$$

MTorres
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