[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic waters from 32N45W
to 26N58W to 26N64W, continuing as a stationary front to 28N74W to
28N80W. Gale force winds are occurring in the vicinity of the
front north of 30.5N between 48W-50W and from 28N-30N between
67W-70W. Seas in these areas are ranging between 12-16 ft. These
conditions will continue through early this morning, when the
cold front is expected to dissipate. Refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop along
the frontal boundary mentioned above, over the central Atlantic
Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores by tonight. Gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
westward, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form on
Tuesday or Wednesday before upper-level winds become unfavorable.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from
03N-16N, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance
depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 09N-15N between 25W-32W, and from 03N-08N between 22W-29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from
03N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite
imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N-15.5N between 50W-59W. This tropical wave will increase
moisture across the Lesser Antilles later today.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 21N70W to
08N72W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen where the wave intersects the East Pacific monsoon trough
near the N coast of Colombia from 09N-11.5N between 71.5W-77W. The
wave no longer contains any significant convection north of 11.5N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 11N21W to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to
07N46W to 08N54W. Excluding the convection mentioned above in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the far E Atlantic near the coast of Africa,
from 06N-13N and east of 19W. Scattered showers are along the ITCZ
between 37W-48W. Scattered showers are also from 10N-13N between
43W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A N-S surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico along 93.5W from
18N-24N with isolated showers. In the upper levels, a sharp N-S
upper-level trough is over the Gulf along 91W. Upper level
diffluence east of the trough is producing scattered showers and
isolated tstorms along with broken to overcast multi-layered
clouds over the eastern Gulf east of 90W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows fresh E winds over much of the eastern Gulf, with moderate
winds elsewhere. A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean
from central Cuba to 21N85W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N89W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over land over
the Yucatan Peninsula.

The weak low pressure trough along 93.5W will linger over the SW
Gulf through today. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf late
today, then extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz on
Tue. NE winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across
the western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected
offshore of Veracruz early in the week. The front will stall and
weaken over the central Gulf Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See the section
above for details.

A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from central Cuba
to 21N85W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N89W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N-23N
between 78.5W-84W, and inland over the Yucatan Peninsula from
17N-21N between 87W-91W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades
south of 15.5N between 61W-75W, with gentle to moderate trades
elsewhere.

The weak tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 71W will
move west and cross the western Caribbean late today and Tue. The
tropical wave along 57W will reach the Lesser Antilles later today.
Expect fresh to locally strong winds as this wave passes over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the middle of this week.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of
the region for the next several days. Northerly swell generated by
a cold front north of the area will cause seas to build east of
the Lesser Antilles late today through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two Gale Warnings are in effect for the Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details.

Two tropical waves are in the tropical Atlantic. See the section
above for details.

The front mentioned above in the Special Features section and an
upper-level low near 28N71W are inducing scattered moderate
convection from 23N-31N between 63W-73W. Similar convection is
seen farther east along the front from 28.5N-32N between
46W-48.5W. Scattered showers are elsewhere along the front. The
latest ASCAT pass shows that the strong to near gale force winds
are occurring north of a line from 26N80W to 26N58W to 32N47W.
South of that line, winds are gentle or moderate from that line to
20N. To the east, surface ridging prevails across the remainder
of the area anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 31N35W.

Expect strong to near gale force NE to E winds and very rough
seas north of the 26N65W to 28N80W stationary front through
today, with minimal gale conditions expected N of 28N between 67W
and 70W through early this morning. The stationary front will lift
northward as a warm front and dissipate today into Tue. NE swell
will propagate S across the remaining waters east of the Bahamas
through tonight, then gradually decay Tue through Thu. Another
cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast late Tue and approach
the NW Bahamas Wed and Thu.

$$
Hagen
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