[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is currently dipping south over the western Atlantic
from 30N67W to 29N74W to 30N78W. This system is expected to
generate gale force winds beginning Sunday 06/0600 UTC within 60
nm of the NW semicircle of a low centered near 30.5N54.5W. Seas
will range between 10-13 ft in this area. As this system moves
east, a new area of gale force winds will develop by Sunday
06/1200 UTC within 90 nm in the NW semicircle of the low, centered
near 30.5N53W. Seas will be 13-16 ft. Gale force winds will
diminish by Monday, 07/1800 UTC. Refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 25W from
04N-15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance
depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N-15N between 20W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from
03N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite
imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N-12N between 46W-52W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 21N64W to
07N67W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model
guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture behind this
wave. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 07N26W to 06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W
to 06N48W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave
section above, scattered moderate convection is along the coast
of W Africa from 04N-11N and east of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed in the central Gulf of Mexico
near 24N90W. A surface trough extends from 26N95W to the low to
22N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of
these features mainly south of 25N between 84W-91W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. In the
upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is off the coast of
Texas. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is enhancing the
convection over the southern Gulf waters.

Weak low pressure over the south-central Gulf will
continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight.
A broad trough will persist over the southern Gulf Sun and Mon. A
cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon, then extend from the
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz by Tue morning. NE winds will
strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the western Gulf
behind the front, with strong winds expected offshore of Veracruz
early next week. The front will stall and weaken over the central
Gulf by the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See the section above
for details.

A surface trough is over Cuba with scattered moderate convection
affecting the island and adjacent waters mainly north of 16N. To
the south, scattered moderate convection prevails over
Panama, Costa Rica and adjacent waters due to the proximity of
the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the basin.

The tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will reach the
central Caribbean Sun morning, then cross the western Caribbean
Mon and Tue. Moderate to fresh trades will persist over the
central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend. Another
tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles Mon. Expect fresh to
locally strong winds as this wave passes over the eastern and
central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Elsewhere,
northerly swell generated by a cold front north of the area will
result in building seas east of the Lesser Antilles Mon through
Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two Gale Warnings are in effect for the west Atlantic waters.
Refer to the section above for details.

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See the section above
for details.

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 30N67W to 29N74W to
30N78W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 31N55W to 28N61W to 27N68W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on either sides of
the trough. To the east, a 1022 mb surface high is over the E
Atlantic near 32N28W with fair weather.

The cold front entering the northern waters will generate strong
to near gale force NE to E winds north of 29N beginning late tonight.
Expect strong to gale force winds and rough seas over the waters
north of 29N and east of 71W Sun and Sun night as strong high
pressure builds southward and tightens the offshore pressure
gradient. The weakening front will stall Sun night before lifting
northward as a warm front Mon. Elsewhere, northerly swell
generated by the strong winds will propagate southward across the
remaining waters east of the Bahamas through Mon night. Looking
ahead, the next cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast by mid-week

$$

ERA
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