[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front presently dipping south over the western Atlantic
will generate gale force NE to E winds N of the front beginning
Sunday, 06/1200 UTC, within area bounded by 29N65W to 29N70W to
31N70W to 31N65W to 29N65W. Seas will be 12-16 ft in NE swell.
Gale force winds will diminish by Monday, 07/1200 UTC. Refer to
the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 04N-13N between 18W-30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-10N between 43W-55W.

An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the
northern portion of the wave from 18N-23N between 60W-65W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 12N24W to 06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W
to 06N47W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 06N49W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from
02N-09N between 09W-18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
east of Trinidad from 07N-11N between 55W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed in the central Gulf of Mexico
near 23N90W. A trough extends from 26N94W to the low center to
22N88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-26N between
85W-91W. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is off
the coast of Texas. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is
enhancing the convection over the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak low pressure will remain over the south-central Gulf through
tonight, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. A
broad trough will persist over the southern Gulf Sun and Mon. A
cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon, then extend from the
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz by Tue morning. NE winds will
strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the western Gulf
behind the front, with strong winds expected offshore of Veracruz
early next week. The front will stall and weaken over the central
Gulf by the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above.

A surface trough is over W Cuba from 23N78W to 22N83W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 17N-22N between
74W-86W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13N between 76W-84W.

A weak tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will reach the
central Caribbean Sun morning, then weaken as it crosses the
western Caribbean Mon through Tue. Moderate to fresh trades will
persist over the central and eastern Caribbean through the
weekend. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles on
Mon. Expect fresh to locally strong winds as this wave passes over
the eastern and central Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Elsewhere, northerly swell generated by a cold front north
of the area will result in building seas east of the Lesser
Antilles Mon through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale is forecast for the western Atlantic. See above.

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See above.

As of 05/1500 UTC, the cold front over the W Atlantic extends from
32N60W to 30N70W to 32N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the front. A prefrontal trough extends from 33N55W to 29N61W to
28N67W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm N of the
trough, and within 240 nm S of the trough. A 1024 mb high is over
the E Atlantic near 30N34W producing fair weather. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic
near 27N72W. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-30N between
67W-72W.

Over the W Atlantic expect the cold front to stall Sun night
before lifting northward as a warm front Mon. Elsewhere, northerly
swell generated by the strong winds will propagate southward
across the remaining waters east of the Bahamas through Mon night.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the southeastern
U.S. coast Tue through Wed.

$$
Formosa
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