[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front entering the northern waters of the western Atlantic
will generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the
waters N of 29N and E of 75W beginning tonight, 06/0600 UTC, and
strong to minimal gale force winds over the waters N of 28N and E
of 71W Sunday and Sunday night. These minimal gale force winds
will diminish by Monday. N swell generated by the strong winds
will propagate through the remaining waters NE and E of the
Bahamas through Monday evening. Seas will build to 12-17 feet.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front.
The front will stall and weaken Sunday night, then lift N as a
warm front on Monday. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N- 12N between 22W- 28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N
between 46W-48W.

An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of
the wave with isolated thunderstorms occurring near the Leeward
Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 12N23W to 08N31W. The ITCZ continues from 08N31W to
06N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 06N47W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-12N between 27W-57W. Scattered moderate
convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 05N-14N and E
of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed in the southern Gulf near
22N90W with a trough extending along the low from 18N89W to
26N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within the vicinity
of this feature from 19N-27N between 86W-94W. Otherwise, broad
mid- level high pressure still dominates the Gulf which is
continuing fair weather across the rest of the basin. Latest
scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across
the Gulf.

High pressure will remain centered north of the basin through
early next week. A cold front will enter the northern and western
Gulf by Monday, reach the central and southwest Gulf Tuesday,
then weaken and lift back N as a warm front Wednesday. High
pressure following the front will weaken as it slides eastward
through Wednesday. A broad trough of low pressure over and just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula will drift W into the Bay of
Campeche during the next few days. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust upper level trough is interacting with a plume of
moisture in the NW Caribbean. This is giving way to numerous
strong convection south of Cuba moving across the Cayman Islands,
from 18N-21N between 78W-85W. Scattered thunderstorms are also
noted along the northern coast of Honduras and the Yucatan. A
surface trough is analyzed near the Yucatan Passage from 20N86W to
22N84W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
convection across Colombia and the SW Caribbean with the strongest
convective activity occurring over land. However, scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 12 between 76W-82W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the basin
with moderate trades in the south- central Caribbean. Fresh winds
are also observed in the Gulf of Venezuela.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near 66W will reach
the central Caribbean Sunday morning, then cross the western
Caribbean Monday through Tuesday. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue over the central and eastern Caribbean through the
forecast period. Winds over the S central Caribbean could become
strong by the middle of next week. N swell generated by a cold
front N of the area will cause seas to build E of the Lesser
Antilles Monday through Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A closed mid-level low is centered near 28N72W. At the surface, a
1011 mb surface low is located near 29N63W with a trough
extending along the low from 25N69W to 35N51W. Another surface
trough extends across the Bahamas from 23N77W to 29N69W. Scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms are near these features from
23N-30N between 68W-74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 22N-34N between 53W-65W. Surface ridging extends across the
rest of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N34W.

A cold front entering the northern waters will generate strong to
near gale force NE to E winds over the waters N of 29N and E of
75W beginning tonight, and strong to minimal gale force winds over
the waters N of 28N and E of 71W Sunday and Sunday night. These
winds will diminish Monday. N swell generated by the strong winds
will propagate through the remaining waters NE and E of the
Bahamas through Monday evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. The front will stall
and weaken Sunday night, then lift N as a warm front Monday.

$$
AKR
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