[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front entering the northern waters in the western Atlantic
will generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the
waters N of 29N and E of 75W beginning late on Saturday, and
strong to minimal gale force winds over the waters N of 28N and E
of 71W Sunday and Sunday night. The gale force winds are expected
to begin by 06/0600 UTC and diminish by 07/0000 UTC. N swell
generated by the strong winds will propagate through the remaining
waters NE and E of the Bahamas through Monday evening. Seas will
build to 12 to 16 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the cold front. The front will stall and weaken Sunday
night, then lift N as a warm front Monday. Refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Total precipitable water imagery depicts the
wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 14W-
26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 44W-47W.

An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W/63W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of
the wave axis with an isolated thunderstorm SW of the Leeward
Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 07N25W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends west of a
tropical wave from 08N48W to 07N55W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 01N-12N between 21W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed in the southern Gulf near
23N89W with a trough extending along the low from 21N89W to
25N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in the
vicinity of this feature from 22N-27N between 86W-93W. Otherwise,
broad mid-level high pressure still dominates the Gulf which is
continuing fair weather across the basin. Latest scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the Gulf.

High pressure will remain centered north of the basin through
early next week. A cold front will enter the northern and western
Gulf by Monday, reach the central and southwest Gulf on Tuesday,
then weaken and lift back N as a warm front on Wednesday. High
pressure following the front will weaken as it slides eastward
through Wed. A broad trough of low pressure just north of the
Yucatan Peninsula will move W over the Bay of Campeche during the
next few days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany
the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Interaction with an upper ridge centered over the Yucatan Channel
and an upper level low over the Western Atlantic is producing an
area of diffluence across Cuba. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is occurring south of Cuba and moving toward the Cayman
Islands, from 20N-22N between 78W-86W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen across Haiti and adjacent waters but
are weakening. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is also occurring in the Gulf of Honduras along the northern coast
of Honduras. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
convection across Colombia and the SW Caribbean with the strongest
convection is still over land. However, scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 13N between 73W-82W. Latest scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle trades across the basin with
moderate trades in the south- central Caribbean. Fresh winds are
also observed in the Gulf of Venezuela.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near 63W will reach
the central Caribbean Sunday, then cross the western Caribbean
Monday night through Tuesday night. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue over the central and eastern Caribbean through the
forecast period. Winds over the S central Caribbean could become
strong by the middle of next week. N swell generated by a cold
front N of the area will cause seas to build E of the Lesser
Antilles Monday through Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A closed upper level low is centered near 27N72W. At the surface,
a 1014 mb surface low is located near 29N64W with a trough
extending along the low from 26N69W to 31N62W. Another surface
trough extends across the Bahamas from 22N78W to 26N72W. Scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms are near these features from
20N-20N between 67W-74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 22N-33N between 57W-62W. Surface ridging extends across the
rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N39W.

A cold front entering the northern waters will generate strong to
near gale force NE to E winds over the waters N of 29N and E of
75W beginning late on Saturday, and strong to minimal gale force
winds over the waters N of 28N and E of 71W Sunday and Sunday
night. These winds will diminish Monday. N swell generated by the
strong winds will propagate through the remaining waters NE and E
of the Bahamas through Monday evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. The front will stall
and weaken Sunday night, then lift N as a warm front Monday.

$$
AKR
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