[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is currently dipping south over the western and
central Atlantic from 31N56W to 29N70W to 31N81W. This cold front
will generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds north of
29N beginning Sunday, 06/0600 UTC within 60 nm of the NW semicircle
of a low centered near 30.5N 54.5W. Seas are expected to range
between 10-16 ft in this area. This gale will end by Monday,
07/1800 UTC. As the cold front continues to move south and east,
expect another area of strong to minimal gale force winds and
rough seas over the waters north of 29N and east of 71W to develop
by Sunday, 06/1200 UTC as strong high pressure builds southward
and tightens the offshore pressure gradient. Seas will range from
12-16 ft. This gale will continue through Monday, 07/1200 UTC.
Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W S of
15N, moving W at 15 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict
this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
09N-13N between 23W-29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W S of
17N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite imagery
and model guidance. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 11N- 15N between 46W-51W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 66W/67W
S of 21N, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is depicted in model
guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture behind this wave.
Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis at this time.
Isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the northern portion along
the wave axis from 21N-22N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 11N25W to 08N36W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N36W to 07N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Wave section above, scattered moderate convection is
along the ITCZ from 06N-09N between 45W-56W. There is also
scattered moderate convection along the coast of W Africa from
03N- 12N and east of 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp upper level trough is pushing across the NW Gulf while an
upper level ridge dominates the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a
trough is analyzed in the south-central Gulf of Mexico from
24N86W to 24N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
this feature from 22N-26N between 86W- 95W. Scattered
thunderstorms are also noted in the southern Bay of Campeche, S of
21N between 93W- 95W. Scattered showers are also moving across
Florida into the eastern Gulf waters but no deep convection is
occurring due to subsidence from the upper level ridge. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds in
the east and central Gulf, with light winds elsewhere.

The broad trough will linger over the southern Gulf through Monday.
A cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Monday, then extend from
the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz by Tue morning. NE winds
will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the western
Gulf behind the front, with strong winds expected offshore of
Veracruz early next week. The front will stall and weaken over the
central Gulf by the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See the section above
for details.

An upper level trough extends across the northern Caribbean which
is interacting with a plume of moisture south of Cuba. This is
causing a cluster of strong convection to persist across the NW
basin from 17N-22N between 79W-85W. A surface trough is analyzed
near this convective activity from 17N84W to 21N83W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is also impacting the southern
Bahamas into Haiti and the Windward Passage, from 18N- 22N between
71W-75W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough continues to enhance
convection across the SW Caribbean, from 10N- 14N between 72W-81W.
Upper level ridging extends into the eastern Caribbean which is
inhibiting deep convection although showers are moving across the
Lesser Antilles westward into Puerto Rico. Latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate trades in the south- central Caribbean with
light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin.

A weak tropical wave over the Caribbean near 66W will reach the
central Caribbean by Sunday morning, then cross the western
Caribbean on Monday and Tuesday. Moderate to fresh trades will
persist over the central and eastern Caribbean through the
weekend. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles on
Monday. Expect fresh to locally strong winds as this wave passes
over the eastern and central Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Elsewhere, N swell generated by a cold front north of the
area will result in building seas east of the Lesser Antilles
Monday through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two Gale Warnings are in effect for the west Atlantic waters.
Refer to the section above for details.

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See the section above
for details.

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N56W to 29N70W to
31N81W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N66W to 30N56W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm of
these features. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted off the
northeast Florida coast, N of 28N and W of 79W. An upper level low
is located near 26N72W with a trough reflected at the surface from
22N73W to 27N70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted from 24N-28N between 69W-73W. To the east, a 1022 mb
surface high is over the E Atlantic near 30N34W with fair
weather. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong ENE winds
located behind the front, N of 29N between 57W-80W.

A cold front entering the northern waters will generate strong to
near gale force NE to E winds north of 29N. Expect strong to
minimal gale force winds and rough seas over the waters north of
29N and east of 71W Sunday and Sunday night as strong high
pressure builds southward and tightens the offshore pressure
gradient. The weakening front will stall Sunday night before
lifting northward as a warm front Monday. Elsewhere, northerly
swell generated by the strong winds will propagate southward
across the remaining waters east of the Bahamas through Monday
night. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast Tuesday through Wednesday.

$$

AKR
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