[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28/29W from 04N-19N,
moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-
10N between 29W-35W. Scattered showers are elsewhere from 05N-12N
between 24W-36W. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually
become more conducive, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 04N-22N, moving
W around 15 kt. A moisture maximum is observed along with the wave
in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms
are within 300 nm E of the wave axis from 06N-12N. Isolated
showers and tstorms are within 150 nm W of the wave axis from
11N-16N.

A tropical wave is nearing the Lesser Antilles along 59W from
05N-22N, moving W at 20-25 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are
seen from 16N-22N between 59W-64W, including over the Leeward
Islands. During the next 36 hours, the northern portion of this
tropical wave is forecast to merge into the northern portion of
the tropical wave that is currently along 72W.

A tropical wave is along 72W extending from 05N-24N, moving W
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N-20N
between 65W-70W, including over the waters north of Puerto Rico
and near the eastern Dominican Republic. Elsewhere from 16N-23N
between 64W-75W, isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are
present across the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean. The latest ASCAT
pass shows a surge of fresh to strong winds along and east of the
wave axis over the Caribbean Sea. The northern portion of this
wave is forecast to move west-northwest during the next several
days towards the Bahamas. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over
the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas during the next few days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 11N25W to 11N45W to 07N50W. The ITCZ extends from 07N50W to
the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered to numerous
moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is off the
coast of W Africa from 07N-12N between 13W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered near the SE coast of Louisiana near
29N91W. A north-south oriented mid-upper level trough continues
to persist over the central Gulf, extending southward from the
upper Midwest region of the U.S. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow
prevails over much of the Gulf, except for the eastern Bay of
Campeche and off the coast of southern Texas, where winds are a
little stronger. Weak surface troughing along with some upper-
level divergence near western Cuba is supporting scattered showers
and tstorms south of 24N between 82W-87W. Another cluster of
tstorms is moving over the western Yucatan Peninsula and eastern
Bay of Campeche, mainly south of 20N east of 92W.

Weak high pressure ridging will remain over the northern Gulf
through the next few days providing for generally a gentle to
moderate wind flow and relatively low seas across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the two
tropical waves affecting the Caribbean Sea.

Weak surface troughing along with some upper-level divergence
near western Cuba is supporting scattered showers and tstorms
north of 20N between 82W-87W, with more isolated activity north
of 20N between 78W-82W. Weak upper-level anticyclonic flow covers
much of the Caribbean. Subsidence and relatively dry air are over
much of the Central Caribbean. Isolated showers and tstorms are in
the far SW Caribbean S of 11N due to the East Pacific monsoon
trough, which is located south of Panama. Aside from the area
between 66W-71W that is experiencing fresh to strong winds due to
the tropical wave mentioned above, gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the remainder of the basin.

The tropical wave currently near 72W will cross to the western
Caribbean during the next couple of days. Tradewind easterlies
will increase to fresh or strong in the central Caribbean
beginning Wed night. The tropical wave currently nearing the
Lesser Antilles will move across the eastern Caribbean today
accompanied by similar wind and weather conditions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Four tropical waves are over the Atlantic. Two of these waves are
producing scattered showers and tstorms south of 23N between
59W-75W. Latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong winds north of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through the SE Bahamas from 20N-23N
between 66W-76W. See above for details on the tropical waves.

No significant surface features are analyzed north of 24N between
65W and Florida, but isolated showers and tstorms cover much of
the area due to moist atmospheric conditions. Farther east, an
upper-level low near 30N50W is inducing scattered tstorms from
26N-32N between 45W-52W. A surface trough is analyzed along 51W
from 21N-29N. To the east of that, surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic.

In the far eastern Atlantic near the coast of Morocco, in the
marine zone Agadir, the gale warning has expired. However, strong
to near gale N winds will persist through today.

A tropical wave will bring fresh to strong E to SE tradewinds as
well as showers and thunderstorms over area between north of
Puerto Rico and the SE Bahamas through today. The wave will pass
through the Turks and Caicos Islands today, accompanied by
moderate to fresh winds as well as showers and thunderstorms. This
system will move across the Bahamas Thu, then northward to just
off the Florida east coast Fri and Sat. There is a low chance of
this system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next several
days. Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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