[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 03N-19N, moving
W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N
between 29W-37W. Cloudiness and light showers are elsewhere from
05N-13N between 25W-38W. Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 04N-26N, moving
W around 15 kt. A moisture maximum is observed along with the
wave in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms are within 300 nm E of the wave axis from 06N-10N.
Isolated showers and tstorms are within 150 nm either side of the
wave axis from 10N-18N.

A tropical wave moving through the Leeward Islands extends from
23N62W to 17N63W to 10N63W and is moving W around 25 kt. Scattered
showers and tstorms associated with this wave are seen from 17N-
23N between 60W-65W, including over the Leeward and Virgin
Islands. During the next 24 to 36 hours, the northern portion of
this tropical wave is forecast to merge with the northern portion
of the tropical wave that is currently along 72/73W.

A tropical wave moving over the Turks and Caicos Islands and Haiti
extends from 24N72W to 06N73W and is moving W around 10 kt.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 17N-24N between 65W-
77W over the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The latest ASCAT
pass shows a surge of fresh to strong winds along and east of the
wave axis over the Caribbean Sea. The northern portion of this
wave is forecast to move northwestward during the next few days
and then northward, producing locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 11N25W to 11N45W to 07N50W. The ITCZ extends from 07N50W to
the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered to numerous
moderate convection is off the coast of W Africa from 06N-13N
between 12W-19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered in the north-central Gulf of Mexico
near 29N88W. A north-south oriented mid-upper level trough
continues to persist over the central Gulf, extending southward
from the upper Midwest region of the U.S. The ASCAT pass from
late Tuesday evening shows light to gentle anticyclonic flow over
much of the Gulf, except for the southern and western Gulf, where
moderate winds prevail. Upper-level divergence near western Cuba
is supporting scattered showers and tstorms over the SE Gulf south
of 26N and east of 87W. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over
the Bay of Campeche south of 20N. A few showers and a tstorm are
also seen south of the upper Texas coast from 28N-29N between
93W-95W.

Weak high pressure ridging will remain over the northern Gulf
through the next few days providing for generally a gentle to
moderate wind flow and relatively low seas across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the two
tropical waves affecting the Caribbean Sea.

Upper-level divergence near western Cuba is supporting scattered
showers and tstorms north of 19N and west of 82W, with isolated
activity in the Gulf of Honduras. Weak upper-level anticyclonic
flow covers much of the Caribbean. Subsidence and relatively dry
air are over much of the Central Caribbean. Isolated showers and
tstorms are in the far SW Caribbean from 10N-12N between 80W-83W.
The western Caribbean is experiencing gentle to moderate winds.
Fresh to strong winds are near and east of the tropical wave along
73W.

A pair of tropical waves will cross from the eastern and central
Caribbean into the western Caribbean through the end of the week,
bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
Greater Antilles. In the wake of these waves, trade winds will
increase in the south central Caribbean Thursday and Friday,
bringing fresh to strong easterly breezes.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Four tropical waves are over the Atlantic. Two of these waves are
producing scattered showers and tstorms south of 24N between
60W-76W. The ASCAT pass from Tuesday evening shows fresh to
strong winds north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through the SE
Bahamas from 20N-23N between 66W-76W. See above for details on
the tropical waves.

No significant surface features are analyzed north of 25N between
65W and Florida, but isolated showers cover much of the area due
to moist atmospheric conditions. Scattered tstorms are seen in the
Florida Straits and just off the east coast of Florida from Miami
to Cape Canaveral. Farther east, an upper-level low near 29N51W is
inducing scattered tstorms from 26N-32N between 45W-52W. A surface
trough is analyzed from 31N50W to 23N52W. To the east of that,
surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the subtropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave will bring fresh to strong winds and scattered
showers and thunderstorms today to Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and
the Turks and Caicos Islands, Thursday to Hispaniola through the
southeast Bahamas, and Friday to the Bahamas and western Cuba.
This system is then expected to turn northward through the Bahamas
and off the east coast of Florida into the weekend, when it has a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise, moderate
breezes will generally prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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