[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST consists of gale-force winds for the marine zone
AGADIR, near the coast of Morocco, until 31/0000 UTC. The
surface pressure gradient, between high pressure near the Azores
and low pressure in North Africa, will lead to the gale-force
northerly winds. Please read the latest high seas forecast from
METEO FRANCE, at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 04N-19N, moving
W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N between
28W-34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 04N-22N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the
wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 04N-20N, moving
W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical is along 70W/71W, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, NW Venezuela, and N
Colombia. A portion of this wave is forecast to move west-
northwest during the next several days towards the Bahamas.
Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late
this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and the
northwestern Bahamas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 11N25W to 11N44W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 07N-13N between 10W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 30/2100 UTC, a 1018 mb high is centered over the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 29N91W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are
over the entire Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is inland
over the Florida Peninsula, Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, E Texas,
and SW Louisiana. Similar convection is over the NW Gulf N of 27N
and W of 90W. Mostly fair weather is the remainder of the Gulf
waters.

Weak high pressure ridging will remain over the northern Gulf
through the next few days providing for generally a gentle to
moderate wind flow and relatively low seas across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
eastern Caribbean tropical wave.

As of 30/2100 UTC, a 1007 mb low is centered over N Colombia near
10N72W. 10-20 kt winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of Venezuela. Besides the convection
already mentioned, scattered moderate convection is over Honduras
and Panama.

As the tropical wave crosses to the western Caribbean during the
next couple of days, tradewind easterlies will increase to fresh
or strong in the central Caribbean beginning Wed night. Another
tropical wave, currently over the Tropical N Atlantic, will move
across the eastern Caribbean beginning on Wed afternoon
accompanied by similar wind and weather conditions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale is along the coast of Morocco. See above.

Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above.

A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 29N50W to
21N50W. Scattered showers are from 26N-32N between 43W-50W. A 1027
mb high is over the E Atlantic near 35N33W.

Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over the W Atlantic near 27N59W. Upper level diffluence W of the
center is enhancing showers. Another small upper level low is
centered over the central Atlantic near 30N48W. Scattered showers
are within 180 nm of this low.

A portion of a tropical wave will bring fresh to strong east to
southeast tradewinds as well as showers and thunderstorms over the
W Atlantic. The wave will pass near Hispaniola into the Turks and
Caicos Islands through Wed, accompanied by moderate to fresh
winds as well as showers and thunderstorms. This system will move
across the Bahamas Thu evening, then northward to just off the
Florida east coast Fri night through Sat night. There is a low
chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next
several days. Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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