[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient
between low pressure over North Africa and high pressure near the
Azores is expected to lead to northerly gale force winds off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir today beginning at
29/1200 UTC, according to the High Seas forecast from Meteo
France. Gale force winds are forecast to persist in Agadir
into Tuesday. Gales could potentially spread into the marine zone
Tarfaya on Tuesday. Please see the latest high seas forecast from
Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A potent eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from
18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 08N-10N between 17W-22W. Elsewhere from
07N-15N between 15W-25W, isolated to scattered moderate
convection is present. The wave is well-marked by 700 mb trough
diagnostics, and large scale curvature is noted in satellite
imagery.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37/38W from 20N
southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 04N-10N between 33W-42W. The wave shows up well in
the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48/49W from 18N
southward, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated to scattered showers
are within 270 nm of the wave axis, south of 12N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 22N63W to
15N64W to 06N64W, moving west around 10 kt. This tropical wave
continues to have a persistent area of cloudiness and showers,
especially along the northern portion of the wave. Scattered
moderate convection is from 15N-21N between 58W-67W, including
over the Virgin Islands. This disturbance is expected to move
W-NW to NW across the north central Caribbean Sea during the next
few days, producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some
flooding across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. The system is forecast to move near or over the
Florida Straits by the end of the week where environmental
conditions could be a little more conducive for tropical cyclone
development. The disturbance has a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 5 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Senegal
near 15N17W to 09N24W to 07N46W. The ITCZ extends from 07N51W to
06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough
between 27W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough covers much of the central Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, a 1019 mb high is analyzed near 29N89W.
ASCAT from Sunday evening showed light to gentle anticyclonic
flow across the Gulf. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico south of 24N west of 90W,
with scattered showers also seen in the western Florida Straits
between Key West and Havana. Isolated showers are over portions
of the west-central and NW Gulf.

Overall high pressure will dominate Gulf waters, supporting
gentle to moderate winds through the week. Surface troughs will
develop during the afternoons on the Yucatan Peninsula and
generate fresh to at times strong winds during the overnights as
they move west over the Bay of Campeche, especially early in the
week. Weak surface troughs will also develop over the Florida
Peninsula and move off into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing
some showers and thunderstorms during the overnights.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
eastern Caribbean tropical wave.

A weak upper level trough extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen from
17N-21N between 75W-82W, including over portions of Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the
Gulf of Honduras and southern Belize. Scattered tstorms are also
seen over portions of Panama and N Colombia in association with
the East Pacific monsoon trough. ASCAT from Sunday evening shows
moderate trades across much of the basin with fresh winds in the
south-central Caribbean and near the tropical wave in the eastern
Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong winds
over the south-central Caribbean today. This gradient will relax
as tropical waves cross through mid-week, leading to lower wind
speeds until late week, when the gradient will restrengthen in the
wake of the tropical waves. The first aforementioned wave will
impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and Tuesday,
bringing fresh to possibly strong winds to the region along with
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Another wave on its heels may
bring similar conditions Wednesday into Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough that extends from the central Bahamas to
central Cuba is helping to induce scattered showers and tstorms
from 22N-26N between 75W-83W, including portions of the Bahamas,
the Florida Straits and the N coast of Cuba. Scattered showers and
tstorms are also found east of Florida from 27N-31N between 78W
and the east coast of Florida. Leftover moisture from a stationary
front that dissipated late Sunday is producing scattered showers
and isolated tstorms from 28N-31N between 67W-74W. A surface
trough has been added to the map extending from 31N55W to 26N62W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 27N-31N between 55W-
66W. Farther E, another surface trough extends from 23N42W to
30N44W with a 1016 mb low analyzed along the trough near 26N43W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen within 90 nm NE of the
surface low. The remainder of the basin is dominated by surface
ridging, emanating from surface highs of 1022 mb near 34N53W and
1025 mb near 36N33W, respectively.

A low pressure trough over the far northwest waters will
gradually dissipate today and Tuesday. A tropical wave will bring
showers and thunderstorms to waters near Puerto Rico as well as
fresh to possibly strong winds from this afternoon through
Tuesday. This wave will then move north of Hispaniola and into the
Turks and Caicos Islands Wednesday and Thursday, bringing fresh
to strong winds as well as showers and thunderstorms, before the
feature enters the Bahamas and off the east coast of Florida by
the end of the week. Elsewhere, gentle breezes will prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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