[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
113 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient
between low pressure over North Africa and high pressure near the
Azores is expected to lead to gale force winds off the coast of
Morocco in the marine zone Agadir today from 29/1200 UTC to
30/0000 UTC, according to the High Seas forecast from Meteo
France. Gale force winds could potentially persist in Agadir
through Tuesday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 18W, from 18N southward, moving W around
15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
08N-10N between 16W-21W. Elsewhere from 07N-15N between 15W-23W,
isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen. The wave is
well-marked by 700 mb trough diagnostics, and large scale
curvature is noted in satellite imagery.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 18N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are present from 04N-
10N between 32W-41W near the monsoon trough. The wave shows up
well in the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 18N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Isolated to scattered showers are along
the vicinity of the wave axis south of 12N.

The eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was previously
analyzed along 65W at 28/1800 UTC has been repositioned along 63W
from 06N-20N from 17N southward, moving west around 10 kt. This
tropical wave has developed a persistent area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms along the northern portion of the wave. Scattered
to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
from 15N-20N between 59W-65W, including over the Virgin Islands.
Scattered showers are elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean from
11N-21N between 58W-67W, including Puerto Rico as well as the
Lesser Antilles. This disturbance is expected to move W-NW to NW
across the north central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across
portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The
system is forecast to move near or over the Florida Straits by
the end of the week where environmental conditions could be a
little more conducive for tropical cyclone development. The
disturbance has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 5 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Senegal
near 15N17W to 08N24W to 09N35W to 07N43W. The ITCZ extends from
06N49W to 05N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon
trough between 23W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough covers much of the central Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, a 1019 mb high is analyzed near 29N88W.
ASCAT shows light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the Gulf.
Isolated showers and tstorms are seen off the Louisiana coast,
offshore the Florida Big Bend and over portions of the Florida
peninsula. A surface trough extends over the western Yucatan
Peninsula. West of the trough, scattered showers and tstorms are
present over the eastern Bay of Campeche.

Surface ridging dominating the Gulf waters will generally support
gentle to moderate winds over the basin through Fri night. A
surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
and generate fresh to strong winds over the Bay of Campeche at
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
eastern Caribbean tropical wave.

A weak upper level trough cuts across east-central Cuba and
extends to the waters in between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen from 18N-20N
between 73W-79W over portions of Haiti, Jamaica and the waters
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Isolated showers and tstorms are
over the Gulf of Honduras, over Honduras, southern Belize and also
near the N coast of western Panama. ASCAT shows moderate trades
across much of the basin with fresh winds in the south-central
Caribbean and near the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean.

Strong NE winds will affect the Windward Passage this morning.
Ridging over the western Atlc will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the S central Caribbean today. Near gale force winds
are expected this morning along the coast of Colombia. Winds and
seas will subside tonight through Thu as the ridge weakens, then
increase Thu night as the ridge rebuilds. A tropical wave over the
Caribbean near 63W is producing showers, tstms and gusty winds
over the eastern basin and tropical Atlantic waters. The wave will
impact Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and the adjacent waters
tonight through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Mid to upper level ridging is over the western Atlantic and
Bahamas area between 70W-80W. However, leftover moisture from a
front that recently dissipated in the area is leading to scattered
showers and isolated tstorms from 20N-30N between 70W-79W and from
29N-31N between 79W-81W. An upper level trough that extends from
32N62W to 28N62W to eastern Cuba is enhancing isolated to
scattered showers and tstorms from 26N-30N between 54W-68W.
Farther E, a surface trough extends from 25N41W to 30N46W with a
1017 mb low analyzed along the trough near 26N42W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen within 60 nm of the surface low. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by surface ridging, emanating
from surface highs of 1023 mb near 35N52W and 1025 mb near 36N32W,
respectively.

A tropical wave moving across the E Caribbean will support fresh
to strong NE to E winds over Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters
tonight, including the approaches to the Mona Passage. Elsewhere,
Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail. A surface trough
moving WNW from just N of Puerto Rico Wed night to just E of
Florida by Friday night will be accompanied by strong winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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