[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 16W, from 17N southward along the African
coast. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 07N-17N extending 300 nm on
either side of the wave. At this time, the scattered moderate
strong convection is affecting Senegal, the coast of Guinea and
Guinea- Bissau.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 17N southward,
moving at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present from 04N-09N
between 33W-38W near the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 17N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are along the vicinity
of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 17N southward,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is impacting the Lesser Antilles Islands associated to the wave.
Showers and thunderstorms are concentrated from 12N-18N and
between 58W-65W. This disturbance is expected to move w-nw across
the north central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and some flooding across the
islands including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This system is
forecast to emerge over the straights of FL by the end of the week
where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive
for development.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 07N30W to 08N42W. The ITCZ begins from 07N48W
to 09N59W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical
waves, scattered moderate showers are along noted along the
monsoon trough from 05-09N between 25W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through the Florida
Panhandle into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico while ridging
is in place across the eastern Gulf into the western Atlantic.
At the surface a 1022 mb high pressure extends into the Gulf of
Mexico. ASCAT shows light anticyclonic flow across the Gulf.
Scattered showers are present north of 27N between 90W-96W. To
the south, a surface trough is present in the Bay of Campeche
from 20N-23N between 95W-96W.

Surface ridging dominating the gulf waters will generally support
gentle to moderate winds over the basin through Fri night. A
surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
and generate fresh to strong winds over the Bay of Campeche at
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough cuts across Cuba, to the Gulf of
Honduras. Upper level ridges are on either side of the trough.
Most of the afternoon convection in the Greater Antilles with
a few showers near the coast of Cuba and Hispaniola. Scattered
showers and tstorms are present near the coast of Costa Rica,
Nicaragua and Honduras.

To the east, the convection near the Lesser Antilles is
associated to a tropical wave along 65W south of the Virgin
Islands. This disturbance is expected to move w-nw across the
north central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, producing
locally heavy rainfall and some flooding across Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. This system is forecast to emerge over the straights
of FL by the end of the week where environmental conditions could
be a little more conducive for development.

Ridging over the western Atlc will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the S central Caribbean tonight and Mon. Near gale
force winds are expected tonight along the coast of Colombia.
Winds and seas will subside Mon night through Thu as the ridge
weakens, then increase Thu night as the ridge rebuilds. A tropical
wave over the Lesser Antilles is producing showers, tstms and
gusty winds over the eastern basin and tropical Atlantic waters.
The wave will impact Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
adjacent waters tonight through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N74W to Cape Canaveral
in Florida. Scattered showers extend 180 to 200 nm southeast of
the boundary and west of 70W including the central and northern
Bahamas. A few showers are near 31N46W to 26N43W associated to
a weak trough. The rest of the basin is dominated by a 1023 mb
high near 35N52W, and another high pressure near 35N37W.

A weakening stationary front extending from 31N74W to just S of
Cape Canaveral Florida near 28N80.5W will dissipate tonight. A
tropical wave moving across the E Caribbean on Mon will support
fresh to strong NE to E winds over Puerto Rico and the adjacent
waters Mon night, including the approaches to the Mona Passage.
Elsewhere, Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail. A
surface trough moving WNW from just N of Puerto Rico Wed night
to just E of Florida by Friday night will be accompanied by
strong winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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