[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 14W/15W, from 18N southward, partly in
Africa and partly in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are in the waters from 10N to 13N between 16W
and 19W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 16N between 11W and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 18N
southward. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the tropical
wave near 11.5N. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N
between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 18N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers, possibly more related
to the ITCZ, are from 03N to 13N between 40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 18N
southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N
to 17N between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean, and 66W in the
easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 10N23W, to the 1013 mb low pressure center, to
08N38W and 08N43W. The ITCZ continues 09N45W to 10N54W and
09N60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 05N to 10N between 25W and 40W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 02N to 14N between 40W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through the Florida
Panhandle into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely
scattered moderate rainshowers are from 28N northward from 88W
westward, in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 25N northward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 25N northward.

A surface trough is along 22N95W 18N94W, in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 23N southward between 94W and 98W.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the entire
period, supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds. A pair
of surface troughs will move from the Florida Peninsula into the
NE basin on Tuesday and Thursday. They will dissipate quickly E
of Louisiana during the evening hours. A surface trough will
move off the Yucatan Peninsula every evening, supporting fresh
to strong winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough cuts across Cuba, to the Gulf of
Honduras. Upper level ridges are on either side of the trough.
Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that runs
from the south central coastal sections of Hispaniola, to the
east central coastal sections of Nicaragua.

The scattered moderate to strong precipitation that is from 12N
to 17N between 58W and 66W, in the easternmost part of the
Caribbean Sea, is associated with the 62W/63W tropical wave.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in Colombia, through the
border areas of Colombia and Panama, beyond 07N80W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua from 10N to 12N.

The pressure gradient, between a ridge to the north and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, will continue to support fresh
to strong trade winds in the south central section and in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, through Monday. The wind speeds are
forecast to pulse to near gale-force at night, along the coast
of Colombia. The wind speeds will slow down and the sea heights
will subside afterward, before resuming on Thursday night. A
tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Expect
scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms, and moderate to fresh
winds in the eastern part of the basin and in the Tropical
Atlantic Ocean waters. The wave will impact Puerto Rico, and the
US Virgin Islands and adjacent waters on Monday and Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N73W to Cape Canaveral
in Florida. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N61W
to 24N67W to 20N71W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 52W and 67W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, with a second upper level trough,
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N between 30W and 50W. A
surface trough is along 27N44W 29N46W 31N47W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 26N northward between 40W and 60W.

Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms continue in the NW
forecast waters. The precipitation is associated with the
current weakening stationary front, that passes through 31N73W
to Cape Canaveral in Florida. The front will dissipate this
evening, leaving a remnant trough that will move across the
northern Bahamas and then inland to South Florida tonight. A
tropical wave, that is moving across the E Caribbean Sea on
Monday, will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Puerto
Rico adjacent waters on Monday night, including the approaches
to the Mona Passage. The winds generally will be light to gentle
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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