[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is exiting west Africa, with axis along 14W from
04N-20N, moving west at about 10 kt. At this time, scattered
moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment between
10W-20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N31W to
a 1011 mb low near 11N31W to 04N31W, moving west at about 10 kt.
This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model
guidance. Scattered showers is noted from 05N-15N between 28W-
36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from
19N southward. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt and is
depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered
showers are noted along the wave axis.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean, with axis
along 61W from 20N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave
is well depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-18N between 57W-
64W, affecting the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave with axis along 91W from 20N southward, is moving
west at about 15 kt. This wave is enhancing convection across the
northern portion of Central America and the EPAC waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 11N24W to 10N40W. The ITCZ begins near 08N46W to 06N57W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves described
in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered near 28N88W. The only convection area at this time
resides over the Bay of Campeche, enhanced by the thermal trough
coming out of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough is analyzed
across the far east Gulf from 27N82W to 25N82W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin.

The surface ridge will keep the same wind pattern over the
weekend. The trough over the Florida Peninsula will create
northerly winds over the eastern Gulf, but little additional
impact is expected. The thermal surface trough over the Yucatan
Peninsula will aide in the development of pulses of fresh winds
over the Bay of Campeche, mainly during the overnights.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are affecting portions of the basin. Refer to
the section above for details.

The monsoon trough is enhancing convection over the southern
Caribbean south of 10N between 74W-82W. Scattered showers are
also noted over the far northwest Caribbean north of 18N and west
of 75W. Dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the basin.
Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean, and moderate easterly winds elsewhere.

The gradient between high pressure to the N and lower
pressure over northern Colombia will continue generating fresh to
strong trade winds across most of the central and SW Caribbean
through Mon, then winds will subside. Winds will pulse to near
gale force tonight along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf
of Venezuela. Strong winds will return by Thu. The tropical wave
in the east Caribbean will cross the Lesser Antilles today and
impact waters near Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands over the
first part of the week. Fresh to possibly strong winds and
scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected in this area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Four tropical waves are analyzed across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

A stationary front remains over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to the
coast of FL near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
southeast of the front and west of 70W. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a pair of surface
highs centered along 35N. Dry conditions prevail across the
basin.

The stationary front will continue to weaken today and dissipate
Mon. Light to gentle winds will dominate the region, except for
the SE forecast waters where a tighter pressure gradient will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds. Winds will be locally
strong tonight along the N coast of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net