[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to this analysis, with axis along
12W from 04N-20N. This wave is still over western Africa. At this
time, scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's
environment between 10W-20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N30W to
a 1013 mb low near 10N30W to 04N30W, moving west at 10-15 kt.
This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model
guidance. Scattered showers is noted from 05N- 15N between 25W-
34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 41W from
19N southward. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt and is depicted
in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 59W from 20N
southward, is moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted
in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N-18N between 56W-63W, affecting the
Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave with axis along 88W from 20N southward, is moving
west at about 15 kt. This wave is enhancing convection across
the northern portion of Central America and the EPAC waters.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Guinea near
12N16W to 09N36W. The ITCZ begins near 09N43W to 08N54W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves described
in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high
centered over eastern U.S.. The only convection area at this time
resides over the Bay of Campeche, enhanced by the thermal trough
coming out of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin.

The thermal surface trough will continue forming over the Yucatan
Peninsula everyday then move over the Bay of Campeche at night
with fresh to strong winds. Otherwise, surface ridging will
maintain light to moderate winds over the basin through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are affecting portions of the basin. Refer to
the section above for details.

The monsoon trough is enhancing convection over the southern
Caribbean south of 12N between 74W-82W. Scattered showers are also
noted over the far northwest Caribbean north of 18N and west of
77W. Dry conditions prevail across the northeastern half of the
basin, where latest TPW imagery shows a drier environment
prevailing in this region. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean, and moderate easterly
winds elsewhere.

The gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure
over northern Colombia will generate fresh to strong trade winds
across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Mon, then
winds will subside. Winds will pulse to near gale force at night
along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela through
tonight. Strong winds could return by Thu. A tropical wave will
reach the Lesser Antilles today. Fresh to strong winds and
convection will accompany this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Four tropical waves are analyzed over the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

A stationary front remains over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to the
coast of FL near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
southeast of the front and west of 70W. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a pair of surface
highs centered along 35N. Dry conditions prevail across the
basin.

The stationary front will continue to weaken today and dissipate
Mon. Light to gentle winds will dominate the region, except for
the SE forecast waters where a tighter pressure gradient will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds. Winds will be locally
strong tonight along the N coast of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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