[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 19N southward.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N-12N between 25W-
34W. Latest TPW shows moisture maximum clearly associated with
this wave. A weak 1013 mb low pressure is seen near the wave and
along the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 19N southward.
This wave is moving at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are in the
vicinity of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 19N southward.
Scattered moderate convection is seen across the vicinity of the
wave from 09N-19N between 52W-58W. Showers and thunderstorms are
affecting the Lesser Antilles islands.

In the western Caribbean Sea, a tropical wave is along 86W from
19N southward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
mainly inland across Nicaragua and Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Guinea near
13N16W to a 1013 mb low pressure near 10N28W, then continues west
of the tropical wave to 08N36W. ITCZ starts at 13N42W to 14N51W,
then resumes west of the wave near 12N57W to the coast of Brazil
near 10N62W. Aside from the convection associated with the waves,
scattered showers are seen along both boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through Louisiana, and it reaches
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, weak ridge
prevails and most of the convection is associated to the upper
trough across the basin. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
noted from 22N to the northern Gulf coast and west of 84W to 96W.
Stationary front passes across the Florida Peninsula from 27N82W
to the western Atlantic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
in the interior of South FL but with a southwest wind flow most
of these convection is starting to move into the Atlantic coastal
waters. A surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche from 18N- 21N
along 93W. Scattered moderate strong convection is near the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula moving offshore into the Bay of Campeche.

A surface trough will form over the Yucatan Peninsula everyday
then move over the Bay of Campeche at night with fresh to strong
winds. Otherwise, surface ridging near the northern Gulf Coast
will generally maintain light to moderate winds over the basin
through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are affecting portions of the basin. Refer to
the section above for details.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the western half of
the basin. At the surface, the monsoon trough is enhancing
convection over the southern Caribbean south of 12N between 74W-
82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
10N-14N between 79W-83W into Nicaragua and Haiti and Cuba. Drier
conditions prevail across the northeastern half of the basin,
where latest TPW shows a drier environment prevailing in the
region. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong easterly flow
across the central Caribbean and moderate easterly in the east
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.

The gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure
over northern Colombia will generate fresh to strong trade winds
across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Mon, then
winds will subside. Winds will pulse to near gale force at night
along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela tonight
through Sun night. Strong winds could return Thu. A tropical wave
over the tropical Atlantic waters will reach the Lesser Antilles
Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rain showers associated with this
system will primarily affect the Windward Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A stationary front remains in the W Atlantic from 31N75W to the
coast of FL near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 to 100 nm
southeast of the front and west of 73W. Also, scattered showers
and tstorms are near the northern Bahamas from 24N-27N between
72W-76W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1026 mb surface high is over the central
Atlantic near 35N52W and a 1027 mb high near 36N37W. Dry
conditions prevail across the Atlantic.

A stationary front over the far NW waters will continue to weaken
through Sun and dissipate Mon. Light to gentle winds will
dominate the region, except for the SE forecast waters where a
tighter pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh E to SE
winds. Winds will be locally strong this evening and early tonight
along the N coast of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net