[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 20N
southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 08N
to 10N between 28W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers cover the rest of the area that is from 05N to 12N
between 23W and 33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 20N
southward. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
14N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 05N to 15N between
36W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 20N
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
cover the area that is from 09N to 15N between 52W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 20N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the coastal plains/coastal waters of
Central America from eastern Honduras to Panama along 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 11N20W 10N30W, to the 1012 mb low
pressure center near 14N that is along the 38W/39W tropical
wave. The ITCZ continues from the low pressure center, to 13N50W
11N55W and 09N60W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
from 07N to 11N between Africa and 16W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 02N to 12N between
07W and 21W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 05N to 12N
between 44W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through Lousiana, and it reaches
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface low pressure
is in the coastal plains of Louisiana and Texas. A stationary
front passes through 32N74W to 30N78W, to the Florida east coast
near 28N81W, and to 28N84W in the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. A separate surface trough is along 93W/94W from 21N
southward, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the north of the
line that passes through the Florida west coast near 27N, to
23N90W, and into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near
22N87W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Yucatan Channel.

The remnants of the current eastern Gulf of Mexico stationary
front continue to generate scattered rainshowers and
thunderstorms in the northern half of the basin. The current SW
Gulf of Mexico surface trough is supporting similar conditions
in the SE Mexico adjacent waters. This trough will form in the
Yucatan Peninsula each day, and then move into the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico at night, with fresh to strong winds. A
surface ridge will prevail elsewhere across the remainder of the
basin during the entire period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level trough cuts across the Caribbean
Sea, from the northeastern corner of the area into the
southwestern corner of the area. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence covers the NE corner, from 14N northward from 73W
eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Nicaragua from 11N
to 13N between 81W and 85W. A tropical wave also is along
84W/85W from 20N southward. The monsoon trough extends from
10N72W in NW Venezuela, across Colombia, beyond 08N78W near
Panama, and beyond 07N81W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Other
rainshowers are in the waters that are from 16N southward from
76W westward. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 80W
eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds.

The pressure gradient, between high pressure to the north and
lower pressure in northern Colombia, will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in most of the central and southwest
Caribbean Sea through Monday, and resuming on Wednesday evening.
The wind speeds are forecast to pulse to near gale-force at
night, along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,
from tonight through Sunday night. A tropical wave will move
into the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters today, and across the
Lesser Antilles on Sunday. Fresh to strong winds, and
rainshowers associated with this tropical wave, will be
affecting mainly the Windward Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N74W to 30N78W, to the
Florida east coast near 28N81W, and to 28N84W in the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through
32N69W, to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward between 60W and 76W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the area of broad upper level cyclonic wind
flow.

The current stationary front, that is in the NW waters, will
continue to weaken through Sunday, and dissipate on Monday.
Moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail N of the front through
early Sunday. Light to gentle winds will dominate the region,
except for the SE forecast waters, where a tighter pressure
gradient will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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