[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from
04N-20N, moving W at about 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in
model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-11N between 25W-31W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 38W from
05N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb surface low has
developed in the wave's environment, centered near 13N38W. This
wave is well depicted in model guidance and in the Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers are noted near the
low.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 54W
from 04N-20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the wave from 08N-14N between 50W-60W.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 79W from
05N-21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in
model guidance and in Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection are noted inland especially over Panama, Costa
Rica.

A tropical wave is analyzed over Central America, with axis along
90W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The convection related to
this wave prevails over the EPAC waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 13N25W to 10N50W. The ITCZ continues from 10N50W to 09N54W.
Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves,
no significant convection is noted along these boundaries at this
time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the northeastern portion of the
basin, analyzed as a weakening stationary front from 29N85W to
29N83W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides
of the front. To the northwest, a surface trough is analyzed from
30N93W to 27N97W with scattered showers. To the southwest, the
Yucatan Peninsula thermal trough is moving west reaching the Bay
of Campeche with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across most of
the basin except the Bay of Campeche, where the trough is
enhancing winds to reach the fresh category.

The front will completely dissipate today. The surface trough
will form everyday over the Yucatan Peninsula and move over the
Bay of Campeche with fresh to strong winds and scattered showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are affecting portions of the basin. Refer to
the section above for details.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the western half of
the basin. At the surface, the monsoon trough is enhancing
convection over the southern Caribbean south of 12N between 74W-
82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over northern
Colombia west across the SW Caribbean waters to the coast of
Nicaragua. Drier conditions prevail across the Lesser Antilles and
eastern half of the basin, where latest TPW shows a drier
environment prevailing in the region. Scatterometer data indicate
fresh to strong easterly flow across the central Caribbean and
moderate easterly in the east Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.

The gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure
near the South American coast will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds across most of the central and southwest Caribbean through
the period, with winds pulsing to near gale-force at night along
the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical
wave will move across the Lesser Antilles on Sun, bringing showers
and fresh winds to the Windward Islands and tropical Atlantic
waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A stationary front remains in the W Atlantic from 30N81W to
31N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front and west
of 74W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1025 mb surface high is over the central
Atlantic near 34N55W and a 1027 mb high near 36N36W. Dry
conditions prevail across the Atlantic with the exception of
scattered showers from 24N-26N between 59W- 69W.

The stationary front will remain near 30N through the weekend,
then dissipate on Mon. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will
dominate the forecast waters, except for north of Hispaniola and
the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong E
winds will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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