[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from
02N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in
model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-12N between 24W-29W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 37W from
03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1015 mb surface low has
developed in the wave's environment, centered near 13N37W. This
wave is well depicted in model guidance and in the Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers are noted near the
low.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 38W
from 03N-18N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the northern portion of the wave
between 47W-50W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W from
06N-22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in
model guidance and in Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection are noted inland especially over northern
coast of Colombia.

A tropical wave is analyzed over Central America and the far
western Caribbean, with axis along 88W from 03N-19N, moving W at
10-15 kt. The convection related to this wave prevails over the
EPAC waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Senegal
near 12N16W to 08N26W to 13N37W to 13N41W. The ITCZ continues
from 13N41W to 13N45W, then resumes west of the tropical wave
from 11N50W to 08N58W. Aside from the convection associated to
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted along
and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ mainly W of 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the northeastern portion of the
basin, analyzed as a warm front from 28N93W to 29N87W, then
becomes stationary from that point to 29N83W. Scattered showers
are noted within 250 nm south of the fronts. To the southwest, the
Yucatan Peninsula thermal trough is moving west reaching the Bay
of Campeche with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

The front will dissipate by Sat as it moves north. Otherwise, the
surface trough will form everyday over the Yucatan Peninsula and
move over the Bay of Campeche with fresh to strong winds and
scattered showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the western half of
the basin. At the surface, the monsoon trough is enhancing
convection over the southern Caribbean south of 12N between 74W-
82W. extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 10N74W in Colombia
across Panama near 09N77W into the Eastern Pacific. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted over northern
Colombia west across the SW Caribbean waters to the coast of
Nicaragua. Isolated strong convection is also seen in the southern
coast of Cuba and western Jamaica. Much drier conditions prevail
across the Lesser Antilles where latest TPW shows a drier
environment in the region. ASCAT data indicate fresh to strong
easterly flow across the central Caribbean and moderate easterly
in the easterly Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras.

The gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure
near the South American coast will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds across most of the central and southwest Caribbean through
the period, with winds pulsing to near gale-force at night along
the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical
wave will move across the Lesser Antilles on Sun, bringing showers
and fresh winds to the Windward Islands and tropical Atlantic
waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

An upper level trough extends from the central Gulf and across
the southeast plains. A stationary front remains in the W Atlantic
from 31N75W to N Florida near 29N80W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front and west of 74W. A 1029 mb surface high is
over the central Atlantic near 36N36W. Dry conditions prevail
across the Atlantic with the exception of scattered showers from
24N-26N between 59W-69W.

The stationary front will remain near 30N through Sun, then
dissipate on Mon. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will dominate
the forecast waters, except for north of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong E winds
will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net