[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
809 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave along 21W from 17N southward,
moving 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance
and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 06N-12N and extend 200 nm west of 21W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 18N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted at the
surface, in model guidance, and in the Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate showers are from 03N-16N between 35W-
39W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 17N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
to the northern section of the wave from 11N-14N between 44W-48W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 22N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. The tropical wave is moving through areas
of upper level cyclonic wind flow, in the Atlantic Ocean and in
the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
are present inland especially in Hispaniola and northern coast of
Venezuela and Colombia. Isolated showers are seen in the eastern
Caribbean.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 19N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
17N-20N between 84W-87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
also seen in the interior of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Senegal
near 13N16W to 12N33W to 13N35W. The ITCZ continues from 13N37W
to 11N45W, then resumes west of the tropical wave from 10N47W to
07N58W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical
waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present
in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 06N-12N between 24W-
28W. In the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-
12N between 40W-43W and from 08N-11N between 51W-56W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also noted near the coast of Brazil
extending 100 nm south of the ITCZ and west of 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from the
Florida Peninsula near 28N82W to a 1017 mb low pressure over
the NW Gulf near 27N93W, then transitions to a dissipating
stationary front to 24N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted 250 nm south of the stationary front from
23N-26N between 87W-92W. Isolated shower activity is seen along
the boundary. A surface trough is noted in the Bay of Campeche
from 22N93W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity
of the trough.

A stationary front extending from 29N82W to a 1017 mb low near
27N94W to 25N95W is focusing showers and tstms across the northern
half of the basin. The front will transition to a warm front tonight
then dissipate Sat as it moves N. Otherwise, a surface trough will
form over the Yucatan Peninsula by day then move over the Bay of
Campeche at night as it generates fresh to locally strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 10N northward and 71W westward. The monsoon trough extends
from a 1009 mb low pressure near 10N74W in Colombia across Panama
near 09N77W into the Eastern Pacific. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted over northern Colombia west across the
SW Caribbean waters to the coast of Nicaragua. Isolated strong
convection is also seen in the southern coast of Cuba and western
Jamaica. Much drier conditions prevail across the Lesser Antilles
where latest TPW shows a drier environment in the region. ASCAT
data indicate fresh to strong easterly flow across the central
Caribbean and moderate easterly in the easterly Caribbean and in
the Gulf of Honduras.

The gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure
near the South American coast will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds across most of the central and southwest Caribbean through
the period, with winds pulsing to near gale-force at night along
the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical
wave will move across the Lesser Antilles on Sun, bringing showers
and fresh winds to the Windward Islands and tropical Atlantic
waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

An upper level trough extends from the central Gulf and across
the southeast plains. A stationary front remains in the W Atlantic
from 31N75W to N Florida near 29N80W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front and west of 74W. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted in the interior of the FL Peninsula moving offshore
into the W Atlantic from 26N-29N between 78W-80W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen in the northern Bahamas and north of
26N to 31N. A 1030 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
36N37W. Dry conditions prevail across the Atlantic with the
exception of scattered showers from 24N-26N between 59W-69W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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