[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave along 20W/21W from 18N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N to 14N between 20W
and 29W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 18N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that is from 10N to 15N between 33W
and 41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 18N southward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover
the area that is from 10N to 13N between 43W and 50W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 40W and 45W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 23N
southward. The tropical wave is moving through areas of upper
level cyclonic wind flow, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 13N to 20N
between 74W and 80W in the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 24N between
68W and 74W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 11N20W and 14N29W. The ITCZ
continues from 14N29W to 14N35W 11N44W 07N52W and 07N55W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 04N to
10N between 09W and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 50W and 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 32N74W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to Florida near 29N82W, across the north central Gulf of Mexico,
to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 28N93W, to the
coast of Mexico near 24N97W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
northwest of the line that passes through 32N66W 24N74W 24N80W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the Gulf of Mexico, to the northwest of the line that runs from
the Florida Keys to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The current stationary front will continue to generate scattered
rainshowers and thunder across the northern half of the Gulf of
Mexico. A SW Gulf of Mexico surface trough is generating similar
rainshowers. The front will transition to a warm front later
today, and dissipate along the northern Gulf coast at night. A
surface trough will form in the Yucatan Peninsula, and move into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico at night with fresh to
locally strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 10N/11N northward and 70W westward. The monsoon trough is
along 10N76W in Colombia, 07N80W in the eastern Pacific Ocean,
beyond 07N83W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover
the areas that are from 08N to 11N between 79W and 83W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 13N to 20N between 73W and 79W.

The gradient, between high pressure to the north and lower
pressure near the South American coast, will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in most of the central and southwest
Caribbean Sea through the period, with pulses to near gale-force
during the overnights along the coast of Colombia and Gulf of
Venezuela. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles
on Sunday, with rainshowers and fresh winds mainly for the
Windward Islands and the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front passes through 32N13W 30N22W 28N30W
28N40W, and 29N44W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 24N
northward from 55W eastward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 55W and 75W, in an area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow.

The current stationary front north of the Bahamas will
transition into a weak cold front on Sunday, before dissipating.
Moderate southwest winds are expected ahead of the stationary
front N of 30N through tonight. Gentle to moderate east-
southeast winds will dominate the remaining waters, except for
north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage,
where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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