[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING :  A tightening surface pressure gradient, between
low pressure in North Africa and high pressure near the Azores,
is leading to northerly gale-force winds off the coast of
Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, today, starting at 29/1200
UTC, according to the High Seas forecast from Meteo France. Gale
force winds are forecast to persist in Agadir into Tuesday. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 30/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of NORTH near
gale or gale in: AGADIR and TARFAYA. Please read the latest high
seas forecast from Meteo France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 16N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the waters from 03N to 16N between 16W and
26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 18N
southward. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 24N between 30W
and 43W. ITCZ-related widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 34W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 19N southward.
Nearby ITCZ precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 42W and 45W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 05N to 10N between 40W
and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 22N
southward. Rainshowers: scattered moderate to strong from 17N to
19N between 62W and 64W; widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 14N to 16N between 64W and 67W; and isolated
moderate elsewhere from 23N in the Atlantic Ocean southward
between 59W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal area of Mauritania
near 18N16W, curving to 15N17W, 11N19W, 09N38W, 08N45W, 07N46W,
and 07N51W. The ITCZ continues from 07N51W to 07N56W and 08N59W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 06N to 10N between 34W and 40W. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 42W and 45W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 05N to 10N
between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through the Florida
Panhandle into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The surface
pressure pattern is flat and weak. A surface ridge extends from
a 1020 mb high pressure center that is in SE Alabama, into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to 20N along the coast of
Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are spread across the
entire Gulf of Mexico.

Overall high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters, supporting
gentle to moderate winds through the week. Surface troughs will
develop during the afternoons on the Yucatan Peninsula. The
troughs will move westward into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, especially early in the week, and generate fresh to
strong winds during the overnight hours. Weak surface troughs
also will develop in the Florida Peninsula, and move into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing some rainshowers and
thunderstorms during the overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 16N
northward from the Windward Passage westward.

The following precipitation is in the eastern part of the
Caribbean Sea, associated with the 64W/65W tropical wave:
scattered moderate to strong from 17N to 19N between 62W and
64W; widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 14N to
16N between 64W and 67W; and isolated moderate elsewhere from
23N in the Atlantic Ocean southward between 59W and 70W.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in Colombia, through the
border areas of Colombia and Panama, beyond 07N85W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 11N southward from 76W westward.

The pressure gradient, between high pressure to the north and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central section today. The
gradient will relax as a part of tropical waves cross through
mid-week, leading to lower wind speeds until late week, when the
gradient will restrengthen in the wake of the tropical waves.
The first aforementioned wave will impact the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today and Tuesday, bringing fresh to possibly strong
winds to the region along with numerous rainshowers and
thunderstorms. Another tropical wave on its heels may bring
similar conditions Wednesday into Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 37W and 48W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, with a second upper level trough,
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N between 56W and 66W. A
surface trough extends from 29N45W, to a 1016 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N43W, curving to 22N46W. One surface
trough is along 57W/58W from 25N to 29N. A second surface trough
is along 69W/70W from 22N to 30N. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 23N northward between 40W and 68W.

Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 28N northward from 68W westward. Remnant instability from
an earlier stationary front, and a surface trough from 32N71W to
31N72W, are in the area of the precipitation.

Low pressure in the far northwest waters will dissipate
gradually, today and on Tuesday. A tropical wave will bring
rainshowers and thunderstorms to the waters that are near Puerto
Rico, as well as fresh to possibly strong winds from this
afternoon through Tuesday. This wave then will move to the north
of Hispaniola and into the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday
and Thursday, bringing fresh to strong winds as well as
rainshowers and thunderstorms, before the feature enters the
Bahamas and off the east coast of Florida by the end of the
week. Gentle breezes will prevail elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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