[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is present along the coast of Africa along 14W from
16N southward. Scattered moderate isolated convection is offshore
along the coast of Senegal, Guinea Bissau and Guinea extending out
180 nm to the east of the wave.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 19N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance
and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
04N-13W between 35W-40W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W from 11N southward.
This wave is noticeable in the latest model guidance and convection
near the wave axis suggest the wave location. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N-11N between 42W-47W.

An eastern Caribbean wave has an axis that extends from 21N65W to
13N66W to 04N66W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is well depicted
at the surface, in model guidance and in the Total Precipitable
Water imagery. The trough associated with this wave extends down
to the surface. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the waters of the NE Caribbean.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 13N-24N
between 64W-70W. This wave will reach Central America this weekend.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 17N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen south
of 12N between 75W-83W, including the coast of Colombia, Panama,
Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The convection is being enhanced by
upper-level diffluence and the East Pacific monsoon trough, which
lies just south of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N16W
to 09N34W to 05N45W. The ITCZ extends from 05N47W to the coast of
South America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated to
the tropical waves, scattered moderate showers are seen from 08N-
15N between 28W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Florida
near 29N83W to a 1015 mb low near 26N94W to 21N97W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is seen 180 to 200 nm ahead of
the stationary front between the Florida and Mexican coast.
Upper-level divergence is helping to enhance convection. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are also noted in the Yucatan
Peninsula, which have moved offshore from 21N-22N between 87W-90W.

A stationary front extending from 29N83W to a 1015 mb low near
26N94W to 21N97W. Scattered showers and tstms prevail north of 26N
and east of 90W, and south of 24N and west 93W. Moderate to fresh
NE to E winds N of the front will prevail through early Fri, when
the front is forecast to dissipate. Moderate to fresh SW to W
winds S of the front over the NE basin will diminish by this
evening. The remnants of the front will transition to a surface
trough along the coast of NE Mexico on Fri before moving inland.
Otherwise, a surface trough will form and move off the Yucatan
Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche at night accompanied with fresh
to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
for details.

A small upper-level low is centered N of Colombia near 14N76W
enhancing scattered showers near Jamaica and Cuba. Scatterometer
data depicts strong NE to E trades in the south-central Caribbean
between Colombia and 15N, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend,
pulsing to near-gale force at night along the coast of Colombia
and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand northward
towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward Passage
tonight through Sat morning as high pressure strengthens and a
tropical wave moves across the central Caribbean. Winds in the
northern-central basin will diminish on Sat as the tropical wave
moves over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low near 33N74W to
Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. A weak upper-level low is near
28N71W. Upper-level divergence is enhancing scattered moderate
convection over the W Atlantic north of 25N between 67W-80W,
including the central and northern Bahamas. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are seen near the coast of Florida south of 27N.
A 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 37N39W.
A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N24W and extends
to 29N39W to 30N46W. No significant convection is seen with the
front.

A stationary front to the north of the Bahamas will gradually
weaken and dissipate on Friday. The pressure gradient between the
frontal boundary and high pressure to the east will support
moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N through Thu. Gentle to
moderate SE winds will dominate the remainder waters, except N of
Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh
to strong winds will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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