[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
113 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W from 19N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model
guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-10N between 32W-37W, from 10N-15N between 26W-31W, and
from 04N-09N between 40W-49W.

An eastern Caribbean wave has an axis that extends from 23N62W to
16N64W to 05N64W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is well depicted
in model guidance and Total Precipitable Water imagery. The trough
associated with this wave extends down to the surface. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms are affecting the Lesser Antilles
north of 14N, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the waters of the NE
Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from
12N-15N between 65W-71W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along
the northern portion of the wave over the Atlantic to 23N. This
wave will reach Central America on Saturday.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 04N-17N,
moving W around 15 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered
strong convection is seen south of 11.5N between 77W-83W,
including over Panama and southeastern Costa Rica. The convection
is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence and the East Pacific
monsoon trough, which lies just south of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 10N29W to 09N36W to 06N41W to 06N46W. The ITCZ extends from
06N46W to the coast of South America near 05N53W. Aside from the
convection and showers mentioned in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N-14N between 13W-
23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from near
Ocala Florida near 29N82W to 28N87W to a 1013 mb low near 26N94W
to 22N96W to 22N100W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
26N-30N between 81W-84W, including over Florida, from 25N-28.5N
between 86W-94W, and from 20N-23N between 93W-96W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere within a box from
26N81W to 19N94W to 22N98W to 27N96W to 29.5N82W to 26N81W. Upper-
level divergence is helping to enhance convection. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds N of the front will prevail through early Fri
when the front is forecast to dissipate. Moderate to fresh SW to W
winds S of the front over the eastern Gulf will diminish by this
evening. The remnants of the front will transition to a surface
trough along the coast of NE Mexico on Fri before moving inland.
Otherwise, a surface trough will form and move off the Yucatan
Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche at night accompanied with fresh
to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
for details.

A small upper-level low is centered N of N Colombia near 14N76W
enhancing scattered showers from 12N-15N between 71W-75W and near
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Scatterometer data depicts strong
NE to E trades in the south-central Caribbean between Colombia
and 14N, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend,
pulsing to near gale force at night along the coast of Colombia
and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand northward
towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward Passage
tonight through Sat morning as high pressure strengthens and a
tropical wave moves across the central basin. Winds in the
northern-central basin will diminish on Sat as the tropical wave
moves over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low near 32N75W to
Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. A weak upper-level low is near
28N71W. Upper-level divergence is enhancing scattered moderate
convection over the W Atlantic north of 21N between 66W-77W,
including the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are seen between 77W and Florida. A 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 38N39W. A cold front
enters the discussion area near 32N22W and extends to 30N40W to
31N46W. No significant convection is seen with the front.

The stationary front to the north of the Bahamas will gradually
weaken and dissipate on Friday. The pressure gradient between the
frontal boundary and high pressure to the east will support
moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N through today. Gentle to
moderate SE winds will dominate the remainder of the western
Atlantic waters, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net