[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is present along the coast of W Africa along 16W
from 05N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is along the coast of Senegal, Guinea Bissau and Guinea from
10N-14N between 15W-20W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W from 02N-19N, moving W
at 20 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and
satellite imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
04N-16W between 31W-42W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 03N-12N, moving W at
20 kt. This wave is noticeable in the latest model guidance.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-12N between 42W-
49W.

An eastern Caribbean wave is along 68W/69W from 05N-22N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted at the surface, in model
guidance, and in the Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is over Hispaniola. Isolated moderate
convection is elsewhere from 19N-24N between 64W-70W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from 03N-20N,
moving W at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
17N-23N between 78W-85W to include Cuba and the Cayman Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W
to 11N35W. The ITCZ extends from 11N35W to 11N38W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 12N40W and extends to the coast
of South America near 04N52W. Aside from the convection
associated to the tropical waves, scattered showers are within 120
nm of the axis between 20W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from N Florida
near 29N81W to a 1014 mb low over the NW Gulf near 26.5N92.5W to
22N97W. 15 kt NE winds are N of the front. 5-10 kt variable winds
are S of the front. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
front. Elsewhere, widely scattered moderate convection is over the
SE Gulf from 21N- 27N between 80W- 88W. A surface trough is over
the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W to 17N91W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the trough.

The stationary front is forecast to dissipate early Fri. The
remnants of the front will transition to a surface trough along
the coast of NE Mexico on Fri before moving inland. A surface
trough will form and move off the Yucatan Peninsula and move into
the Bay of Campeche every night accompanied by fresh to strong
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
for details.

A small upper-level low is centered N of Colombia near 15N77W.
Upper level diffluence NW of the center is enhancing convection
over W Cuba. Scatterometer data depicts strong NE to E trades in
the south-central Caribbean between Colombia and 15N, with
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the
weekend, pulsing to near-gale force at night along the coast of
Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will
expand northward towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the
Windward Passage tonight through Sat morning as high pressure
strengthens and a tropical wave moves across the central
Caribbean. Winds in the northern-central basin will diminish on
Sat as the tropical wave moves over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to N Florida
near 29N81W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A
1030 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 37N38W. The tail
end of a cold front is over the eastern Atlantic from 31N23W to
29N40W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note
in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the
W Atlantic near 30N70W enhancing showers.

The stationary front will gradually weaken and dissipate on
Friday. The pressure gradient between the frontal boundary and
high pressure to the east will support moderate to fresh S to SW
winds N of 27N through Thu. Gentle to moderate SE winds will
dominate the remainder of the W Atlantic, except N of Hispaniola
and the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong
winds will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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