[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Barry at 14/0300 UTC is inland
near 33.5N 93.5W, or about 70 mi N of Shreveport, Louisiana. Barry
continues to move towards the N at 10 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speeds are 26
knots with gusts to 30 knots. The strong convection is away from
the center, near the coast. Scattered moderate convection extends
across the Mississippi Valley and the northwestern Gulf coast.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the NW Gulf of
Mexico from 25N-29N between 92W-97W. Some weakening is forecast
during the next 24 hours, and Barry is expected to become a post-
tropical cyclone by Monday evening. Please see www.hurricanes.gov
for the latest public advisory and forecast advisory on Barry.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of
the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 18N southward,
moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-15N
between 55W-61W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of
the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15kt. Isolated strong convection is seen south of
Cuba, 100 nm NW of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 19N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. This tropical wave is moving through the area
of an upper level inverted trough. Cluster of moderate to strong
convection is noted from 09N-13N between 80W-83W into Costa Rica
and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 12N16W to 07N41W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to
05N49W. Scattered moderate showers are from 05N to 10N between
40W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression BARRY is inland, in NW Louisiana. A surface
ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection
is seen is the northern half of the Gulf associated to T.D. Barry.
ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh E to NE winds west of the
Yucatan Peninsula extending to 92W and also north of 25N along the
Texas and Louisiana coast. Light and gentle winds are seen across
northeast Gulf coast.

Winds and seas will diminish over the north Central Gulf tonight.
High pressure will gradually build into the waters for the first
half of the week, leading to moderate southeast winds across the
area. Winds will occasionally become fresh to strong northwest of
the Yucatan peninsula through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea at this time. See
above for details associated to these tropical waves.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of
Cuba. In the eastern Caribbean, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen 280 nm west of the Lesser Antilles from 11N to
14N between 63W-65W. Additional convection is mainly associated
to the tropical waves in the basin. ASCAT data shows moderate to
fresh conditions south of Jamaica with strong winds to the north
of Colombia.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will
also be fresh over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave near 87W
will cross into Central America late tonight. Another tropical
wave along 76W will reach the western Caribbean Mon. The next
tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic tonight, the
eastern Caribbean Mon, and the central Caribbean Tue into Wed. A
surge of fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany
this wave in the tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N57W. A
surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N60W to 27N70W, a
second trough extends from 31N52W to 25N61W, and a third 29N46W
25N50W. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of the troughs.
A 1036 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N38W.

A trough over the W Atlantic will move W across the waters S of
28N through early Tue when it will reach the Florida Peninsula.
Another trough will move W of 65W by Wed, weakening as it
approaches the Bahamas through Thu. High pres will dominate the
region through the next several days, bringing gentle to moderate
breezes except N of Hispaniola, where fresh to strong trades will
pulse during the evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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