[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression BARRY is near 32.8N 93.6W at
14/2100 UTC.  BARRY is moving toward the N, or 360 degrees, 8
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the
coastal waters and coastal plains of Texas from 27N to 29N
between 94W and 97W, roughly from the middle Texas Gulf coast
northward toward the Upper Texas Gulf coast. Other rainshowers
are possible to the NW of the line that runs from the Florida
Big Bend along 84W to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W.
Public Advisories for BARRY are available under the WMO header
WTNT32 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for BARRY are available under the WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. Please, see
www.hurricanes.gov for more details also.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W from 16N southward.
Any nearby precipitation is related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/56W from 23N
southward. Rainshowers are possible from 14N to 20N between 50W
and 60W. ITCZ-related precipitation is from 10N to 14N between
50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W from Haiti
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 16N to 21N between western Puerto Rico and the Mona
Passage.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 19N
southward. This tropical wave is moving through the area of an
upper level inverted trough. The trough extends from NW Cuba
beyond the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 15N northward from 80W westward, in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W to 08N30W 08N38W and 08N42W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N42W to 11N50W, and to 10N55W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 14N
between 56W and 64W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 11N
southward between 10W and 45W, and from 10N to 14N between 50W
and 56W

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression BARRY is inland, in south central coastal
Louisiana. A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf
of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Barry near 32.8N 93.6W 1008 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving N at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Barry will move to 33.9N 93.6W tonight, then become post-
tropical near 35.3N 93.5W Mon afternoon, to 36.8N 92.8W on
Tuesday morning, and to 38.2N 91.4W on Tuesday afternoon, and
dissipate on Wednesday in Missouri. The wind speeds will
diminish, and the sea heights will subside across the basin
through early Monday, in the wake of BARRY, and as high pressure
builds westward across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, with an inverted trough that runs from NW Cuba
beyond the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 15N northward from 80W westward, in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W near the Colombia/
Venezuela border, to 08N81W in the southern part of Panama,
beyond 08N85W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to
numerous strong rainshowers are from 06N to 11N between 80W and
83W, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate
to strong rainshowers are in Colombia from 09N to 10N between
74W and the coast.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the S central Caribbean Sea for the entire forecast
period. The winds will be fresh to occasionally strong in the
Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave that is near 86W will cross
into Central America tonight. A second tropical wave that is
along 74W will reach the western Caribbean Sea by Monday night.
The next tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic Ocean
tonight, the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, and the central
Caribbean Sea from Tuesday into Wednesday. A surge of fresh to
strong winds and building seas will accompany the wave that will
be in the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Caribbean
Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to
the NW of the line that passes through 31N47W to 22N60W to
20N70W. One surface trough is along 29N47W 26N48W 24N49W.
The southernmost point of a dissipating stationary front is
32N59W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 32N59W to
29N56W and 27N60W. A second surface trough is along 30N63W
26N70W, to 23N74W in the Bahamas. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N50W to 26N60W
to SE Cuba.

A trough, from 27N66W to 21N73W, will move W across the waters S
of 28N through early Tuesday, when it will reach the Florida
Peninsula. A second trough will move W of 65W by Wednesday,
weakening as it approaches the Bahamas through Thursday. High
pressure will dominate the region through the next several days,
bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola,
where fresh to strong trade winds will pulse during the evening
hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

mt
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