[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Barry at 15/0900 UTC is inland
near 34.4N 93.5W, or about 80 mi WSW of Little Rock, Arkansas.
Barry continues to move towards the N at 7 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. T.D. Barry has maximum
sustained wind speeds of 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. The
convection associated with Barry remains away from the center.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends across the
Mississippi Valley into the northwestern Gulf coast. Scattered
showers remain near the Louisiana and Texas coast. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Please
see www.hurricanes.gov for the latest public advisory and forecast
on Barry.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of
the wave.

A tropical wave is noted along 45W from 25N to 15N. This is a
mid latitude trough. At this time, scattered showers are in the
vicinity of the wave.

The Atlantic wave along 57W has been removed. Current satellite
imagery and observations show no evidence of the wave in that
area. In addition, wave diagnostic does not indicate the presence
of a wave in that location.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 74W has been reposition back
E to 68W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
on the eastern side of the wave from 11N-14N between the Lesser
Antilles to 68W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. This tropical wave is moving through the area
of an upper level inverted trough. Cluster of moderate to strong
convection is noted from 09N-13N between 80W-83W into Costa Rica
and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 11N15W to 06N43W. The ITCZ continues from 06N43W to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate showers are from 07N to 10N between 40W-48W.
elsewhere along the monsoon trough, scattered showers are in the
vicinity of the boundary and the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Barry is centered near SW Arkansas. A surface
ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the
northern half of the Gulf associated to T.D. Barry. ASCAT data
indicates moderate to fresh E to NE winds west of the Yucatan
Peninsula extending to 92W and also north of 25N along the Texas
and Louisiana coast. Light and gentle winds are seen across
northeast Gulf coast.

Remnant winds and seas associated with now distant Barry will
diminish over the N central Gulf through the morning. High
pressure will become established in the NE Gulf during the early
part of the week, where it will remain thereafter. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds will dominate the basin, occasionally fresh
to strong W-NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and
early morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea at this time. See
above for details associated to these tropical waves.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across
the Windward passage and south of Cuba. In the eastern Caribbean,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is mainly associated
to the tropical wave along 67W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection across the southwest Caribbean is to the due to the
proximity of the Pacific monsoon trough extending from a 1009 mb
low over Colombia. ASCAT data shows moderate to fresh conditions
south of Jamaica with strong winds to the north of Colombia.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will
also be fresh over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave near 87W
will cross into Central America late tonight. Another tropical
wave along 76W will reach the western Caribbean Mon. The next
tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic tonight, the
eastern Caribbean Mon, and the central Caribbean Tue into Wed. A
surge of fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany
this wave in the tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N58W.
South of the high, several trough are noted. First trough is
noted 28N62W to 26N69W. Second trough is 31N52W to 27N59W, and
third near 29N48W. Scattered to moderate convection is noted
along the troughs. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 32N36W.

A trough over the central Bahamas will move W, reaching the Florida
Peninsula by early Tue. Another trough will move W of 65W by Wed,
weakening as it moves across the Bahamas Thu and Fri. Yet another
trough will move between 65W and 70W Fri and Fri night. Otherwise,
high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several
days bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola
where fresh to strong trades will pulse mainly during the evening
hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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