[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 141451
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry's radar and satellite presentations have continued to
degrade, which is typical for an inland tropical cyclone. However,
some curved rain bands producing sustained tropical-storm-force
winds still exist over water and along the south-central and
southwestern coastal areas of Louisiana. Data from the Ft. Polk
WSR-88D radar indicated average Doppler velocity values of 50-59 kt
at 11,000-14,000 ft between 0900-1200 UTC this morning over the Gulf
of Mexico, which would yield equivalent surface winds of 40-45 kt.
Thus, Barry's intensity was maintained at 40 kt at the 1200 UTC
synoptic time. Since then, Doppler velocities have decreased to
around 45 kt at 11,000 ft and surface winds of 34 kt have recently
been reported at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana.
Therefore, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt at the 1500 UTC
advisory time. The pressure of 1006 mb is based on nearby surface
observations.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to
continue moving northward today and tonight into a break in the
subtropical ridge, and turn toward north-northeast and northeast
late Monday into Tuesday.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the
various simple consensus models and the NOAA HCCA model.

Barry will weaken further today as it continues to move inland, and
it should become a tropical depression by tonight if not sooner.
The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours
and dissipate on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding, including river flooding, continues from
Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding
are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up
through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday.
Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded
areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water
rises.

2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue
along portions of the Louisiana coast for a few more hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 31.8N  93.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  15/0000Z 32.8N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/1200Z 34.2N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/0000Z 35.7N  93.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  16/1200Z 37.4N  91.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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