[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 142033
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry's convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has
continued to erode, and the center has become more difficult to
locate in radar imagery.  Surface observations from the Shreveport,
Louisiana, area were helpful in locating Barry's position.  Although
sustained surface winds of 34-36 kt have been occurring during the
past few hours at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana
(PACL1), those winds are not directly associated with Barry's
circulation and are instead locally accelerated straight-line winds.
Therefore, Barry's intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this
advisory, making the cyclone a tropical depression.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt.  Barry is forecast to
continue moving northward tonight around the western periphery
of a deep-layer ridge, and then turn toward the north-northeast
and northeast late Monday into Tuesday.  The new NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend
of the various consensus models TCVA, TVDG, and HCCA.

Barry will weaken further during the next 48 hours as the cyclone
continues to move inland, degenerating into a post-tropical remnant
low pressure system by Monday night and dissipating on Tuesday over
the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding, including river flooding, will continue from
Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Barry.  Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is expected along Barry's path
inland from Louisiana through portions of Arkansas, Mississippi,
southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee through at least Monday.
Significant river flooding is also likely across south-central
Louisiana.

2. Gale-force winds, especially in gusts, will be possible into
this evening over the coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana.
However, these winds are not directly associated with Barry's
circulation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 32.8N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  15/0600Z 33.9N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/1800Z 35.3N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  16/0600Z 36.8N  92.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  16/1800Z 38.2N  91.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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