[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 140839
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry continues to move farther inland with the center now located
over western Louisiana.  Surface observations indicate that the
minimum pressure has risen to 1005 mb, and the maximum winds are
estimated to be near 40 kt, based on Doppler radar velocity data,
but this intensity estimate could be a little generous.  These
lingering tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a convective
band over water and near the coast of Louisiana south and
southeast of the center.

The tropical storm has wobbled a bit to the left recently, but
smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 335/7 kt.
The system is expected to turn northward later today toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge, and a north to north-northeast
motion is expected until it dissipates in two to three days.  The
NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the previous
one, due to the initial position being further west than
anticipated.

Barry is forecast to weaken as it continues inland, and it should
become a tropical depression later today.  The GFS and ECMWF models
suggest that Barry should lose much of its deep convection and
become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours and dissipate entirely
shortly after that over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding continues from Louisiana northward through
the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Key Messages:

1. Although Barry is inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation is still occurring along the coast of south-central
Louisiana.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding
are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up
through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday.
Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded
areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water
rises.

3. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue
along portions of the Louisiana coast for several more hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 31.4N  93.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  14/1800Z 32.4N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/0600Z 33.8N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/1800Z 35.2N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  16/0600Z 36.7N  92.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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