[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 140241
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Barry
continues to move farther inland over Louisiana.  Although the
winds near the center have decreased, tropical-storm-force winds
are being observed along portions of the Louisiana coast and over
the northern Gulf of Mexico.  An automated station near Vermilion
Bay reported 44-kt sustained winds around 0000 UTC, and is the
basis for the initial wind speed of 45 kt.  Barry will continue
to gradually weaken as it moves inland, and it is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday, and degenerate into
a trough of low pressure in 48-72 hours.

Barry is moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt. The global
models are in good agreement in taking the cyclone generally
northward through a weakness in a mid-level ridge during the next
day or so.  After that time, Barry or its remnants are expected to
turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The new NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus
models.

It should be noted that the primary hazard associated with Barry
over the next couple of days will be heavy rainfall that is expected
to spread northward over the Lower Mississippi Valley.


Key Messages:

1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern
Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal
Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding
are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up
through the lower Mississippi Valley, beginning late tonight and
continuing through at least Monday.  Widespread rainfall of 4 inches
or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier
rain that will lead to rapid water rises.

3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area.  Through Sunday morning, these
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 31.0N  93.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 32.0N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/0000Z 33.3N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/1200Z 34.7N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  16/0000Z 36.1N  93.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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