[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 132056
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
the center of Barry moved inland across Marsh Island and
Intracoastal City, Louisiana around 16-18Z.  Since then, the system
has moved farther inland and weakening has started.  The initial
intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on recent observations from
Eugene Island and Cypremort Point.

The initial motion is now 330/6.  Barry should continue
north-northwestward and northward through Louisiana for the next
30-36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level
ridge to the north.  After that, the cyclone or its remnants should
encounter the westerlies and turn north-northeastward before they
dissipate.  The new NHC forecast track has changed little from the
previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models.

Barry should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and it
is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength in
about 24 h.  Subsequently, the cyclone should degenerate to a
remnant low between 48-72 h and dissipate between 72-96 h.  It
should be noted that by Sunday morning the strongest winds will
likely be occurring well away from the center over the Louisiana
coast and the coastal waters.

Barry made landfall as a hurricane.  However, due to the poor center
definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in
post-analysis.

Key Messages:

1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern
Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal
Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely across portions of south-central and
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi through Sunday as Barry moves
farther inland.  The slow movement of Barry will result in a long
duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week,
extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley.

3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area.  Through Sunday morning, these
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 30.1N  92.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  14/0600Z 31.0N  92.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  14/1800Z 32.2N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/0600Z 33.6N  93.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  15/1800Z 35.0N  93.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  16/1800Z 38.5N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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