[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 131455
TCDAT2

Hurricane Barry Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak
gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m.  Doppler radar winds
from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as
well.  In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and
850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the
possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is
estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its
less than classical appearance in satellite imagery.  It should be
noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of
the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in
terms of the overall impacts from Barry.

Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5.
The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few
hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through
Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness
in the mid-level ridge to the north.  This general motion should
continue until the system dissipates.  The new NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial
position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance.

Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves
onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical
storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h.
The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the
previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the
coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake
Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry
moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry
will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from
Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north
across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the
Tennessee Valley.

3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 29.6N  92.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 30.4N  92.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  14/1200Z 31.6N  92.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/0000Z 33.0N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  15/1200Z 34.3N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  16/1200Z 37.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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