[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Barry at 14/0600 UTC is near 31.0N
93.2W, or about 40 nm WSW of Alexandria Louisiana and about 45 nm
N of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Barry is moving toward the NNW at 7
kt. Minimum central pressure has risen to 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are near 40 kt gusting to 50 kt. Numerous moderate
with embedded scattered strong convection is over the NW Gulf of
Mexico in the southern semicircle of Barry north of 25.5N and west
of 89W. Barry is expected to produce total rain amounts of 8 to
15 inches in south central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. The maximum sea
heights are forecast to reach 12 ft early this morning,
diminishing to 8 ft this evening offshore of Louisiana. Please see
www.hurricanes.gov for the latest public advisory and forecast
advisory on Barry.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W from
04N-16N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 05N-08N between 20W-32W.

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 15N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1012 mb low is along the wave
axis near 11N. Scattered showers are seen from 10N-13N between
45W-55W. Enhanced rainshowers are expected for the Windward
Islands on Monday.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends from Puerto Rico near
18N66W to E Venezuela near 03N68W, moving W around 15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen within 150 nm of
the wave axis from 15N-18N. Isolated to scattered light showers
are in the vicinity of Puerto Rico.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 17N southward
across Panama and into the East Pacific, moving W around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen where the wave intersects
the East Pacific monsoon trough, south of 10N from northern
Colombia to Panama and portions of Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of southwestern
Senegal near 13N17W to 09N21W to 09N42W. The ITCZ begins near
09N42W to 09N46W, and continues W of a tropical wave from 08N49W
to 08N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen
from 07N-13N, east of 17W, including over west Africa. Scattered
showers are from 05N-10N between 33W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Aside from the convection over the NW Gulf associated with T.S.
Barry described in the section above, scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are seen just N of the Yucatan Channel and also
just west of Florida from 25N-28N, east of 85W. A cluster of
tstorms is also seen moving westward across the Florida Keys into
Florida Bay.

Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression today around 14/1800 UTC when the center is east of
Shreveport Louisiana near 32.6N 93.3W. However, tropical storm
force winds will end over the Gulf of Mexico around 14/0600 UTC.
Winds over the northern Gulf just off the coast of Louisiana will
then diminish to below 25 kt this evening around 15/0300 UTC.
Monday, high pressure ridging will build westward across the
basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is over the west-central Caribbean.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section
above, scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen from
17N-21.5N between 78W-82W. Isolated showers and tstorms are
elsewhere from 17N-22N between 73W-83W, including just S of the
Windward Passage. Additionally, scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are over western Cuba and near the Yucatan Channel.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the S central Caribbean for the entire period. Winds will be
fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical
wave near 79W will cross into Central America tonight. Another
tropical wave along 67W will reach the central Caribbean today,
then reach the western Caribbean Mon night. Yet another tropical
wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic Monday, then the eastern
Caribbean late Monday into Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb sfc low near 27N65W contains a few showers in the
vicinity. A stationary front extends from 32N52W to 26N60W.
Little to no significant convection is near the front. Surface
ridging covers the remainder of the basin.

A trough will move north of Hispaniola today and move W across
the waters S of 28N through early Tue when it will reach the
Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, high pres will dominate the region
through the middle of next week, generally bringing gentle to
moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong
trades will pulse during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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