[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Barry at 14/0900 UTC is near 31.4N
93.4W, or about 70 nm SSE of Shreveport, Louisiana. Barry is
moving toward the NNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
gusting to 50 kt, and minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is
over the NW Gulf of Mexico in the southern semicircle of Barry
north of 26N between 91W-96W. Barry is expected to produce
flooding rain in south central Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi. The maximum sea heights are forecast to reach 11 ft
early this morning, diminishing to below 8 ft this evening
offshore of Louisiana. Please see www.hurricanes.gov for the
latest public advisory and forecast advisory on Barry.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 17N
southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 05N-09N between 20W-34W.

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51/52W from 22N
southward, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N-12N between 50W-57W. Enhanced rainshowers are
expected for the Windward Islands tonight into Monday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 69/70W from 19N
southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms
are seen within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80/81W from 21N southward
across Panama and into the East Pacific, moving W around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near the northern end of the
wave from 18N-22N between 75W-84W, and where the wave intersects
the East Pacific monsoon trough, south of 11N in the SW Caribbean
and over northern Colombia and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of southwestern
Senegal near 13N17W to 09N21W to 09N42W. The ITCZ begins near
09N42W to 08N50W, and continues W of a tropical wave from 07N54W
to 06N57W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen
within 120 nm of the coast of Africa from 06N-11N and along the
monsoon trough between 36W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Aside from the convection over the NW Gulf associated with T.S.
Barry described in the section above, scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are seen from 22N-25N between 84W-88W.

Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression today around 14/1800 UTC when the center is close to
Shreveport Louisiana near 32.4N 93.5W. Winds near 30 kt with gusts
to tropical storm force will be possible within thunderstorm
squalls south of Louisiana through this morning. Winds and seas
will then continue to diminish and subside across the basin
through early Monday. On Monday, high pressure ridging will build
westward across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is over the west-central Caribbean.
See tropical waves section above for description of convection
related to two tropical waves moving through the Caribbean. No
additional areas of significant convection are noted at this time.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the S central Caribbean for the entire period. Winds will be
fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical
wave near 80W/81W will cross into Central America by early Mon.
Another tropical wave along 69W/70W will reach the western
Caribbean by Tue. Yet another tropical wave will reach the
tropical N Atlantic by tonight, the eastern Caribbean Mon night,
and the central Caribbean Tue night into Thu. A surge of fresh to
strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave in the
tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of upper-level diffluence a couple hundred nm off the
coast of Georgia is helping to induce scattered moderate showers
and tstorms north of 30N between 69W-80W. Farther south, a surface
trough extends from 28N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Isolated showers are near the trough. A stationary front enters
the area near 32N53W to 29N55W, dissipating to 26N61W. Isolated
showers are near the front. Surface ridging covers the remainder
of the basin.

The trough from 28N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands will move
W across the waters S of 28N through early Tue when it will reach
the Florida Peninsula. Another trough will move W of 65W Wed,
weakening as it approaches the Bahamas through Thu. Otherwise,
high pres will dominate the region through the next several days,
generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N of
Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the
evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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