[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm BARRY is near 30.7N 92.7W at
14/0000 UTC. This position also is about 40 nm/70 km to the SSW
of Alexandria in Louisiana, and about 50 nm/90 km to the NW of
Lafayette in Louisiana. BARRY is moving toward the NNW, or 335
degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to
60 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the
Gulf of Mexico from 27N to the coast between 90W and 95W. BARRY
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20
inches in south central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. The maximum sea
heights are forecast to reach 17 feet during the next 24 hours.
Public Advisories for BARRY are available under the WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for BARRY are available under the WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. Please, see
www.hurricanes.gov for more details also.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is moving through the Cabo Verde
Islands, along 23W/24W from 16N southward. Rainshowers are
possible from 10N to 14N between Africa and 25W. Any other
precipitation is related to the ITCZ.

AN Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 16N southward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 08N to 12N between 46W
and 53W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/66W from 18N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 13N to 17N between 64W and 68W, to the
south of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N
to 17N between 61W and 63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 17N
southward. This tropical wave is moving through an area of upper
level cyclonic wind flow, with an upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is about 200 nm to the south of Jamaica.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the areas
that extend from Jamaica and its western coastal waters to the
southern coast of Cuba between the Windward Passage and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N26W and 10N33W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N33W to 11N43W, and to the NW coastal areas of French
Guiana near 05N54W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 18W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm BARRY is inland, in south central coastal
Louisiana. Surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 23N northward from 88W westward.

A surface ridge passes through central Florida, into the south
central Gulf of Mexico, to a 1013 mb high pressure center that
is near 21N98W near the coast of Mexico, in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm BARRY near 30.1N 92.3W 997 mb at 5 PM EDT moving
NNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. BARRY
will move inland to 31.0N 92.8W Sun morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical depression near 32.2N 93.0W Sun afternoon,
inland to 33.6N 93.1W Mon morning, inland to 35.0N 93.1W Mon
afternoon, and 36.6N 92.7W Tue morning. BARRY will become a
remnant low pressure center as it moves into Missouri on Tuesday
afternoon, and it is forecast to dissipate on Wednesday. The
wind speeds will slow down, and the sea heights will subside
across the basin from Sunday into early next week, as high
pressure builds westward across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 70W
westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about
200 nm to the south of Jamaica. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the areas that extend from Jamaica and
its western coastal waters to the southern coast of Cuba between
the Windward Passage and 85W. Other rainshowers are possible
elsewhere, from 14N northward from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N76W,
southwestward across Panama, beyond 08N84W, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are mostly inland, from Colombia to Panama and Costa
Rica, from 07N to 11N between 73W and 86W.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
locally strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea for
the entire period. Winds will be fresh to occasionally strong in
the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave that is near 78W will
cross into Central America on Sunday night. A second tropical
wave that is along 67W will reach the central Caribbean Sea on
Sunday, and then reach the western Caribbean Sea on Monday night.
A third tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic
Ocean on Monday, and then the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 28N53W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 24N59W cyclonic circulation center, to a 24N72W
cyclonic circulation center, to a comparatively weaker cyclonic
center that is near 24N78W. A stationary front passes through
32N52W to 30N54W and 26N60W. A 1018 mb low pressure center is
near 27N64W.Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 390 nm to
the NW of the line that passes through 32N48W, to 25N60W 21N70W,
and to 23N80W along the coast of Cuba. Separate isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N81W, to 27N80W along the eastern coast of Florida.

A trough will move north of Hispaniola by Sunday, and move W
across the waters S of 28N through early Tuesday, when it will
reach the Florida Peninsula. High pressure will dominate the
region, elsewhere, through the middle of next week, generally
bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola
where fresh to strong trade winds will pulse during the
evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

mt
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