[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Barry has become a hurricane as of 13/15Z, with center near 29.6N
92.0W, or about 35 nm S of Lafayette Louisiana. The central
pressure is 993 mb and maximum sustained winds are 65 kt gusting
to 80 kt. Barry is moving to the NW at 5 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection prevails north of 24N between 87W-96W.
Waveheights related to this system range between 15-20 ft mainly
north of 27N between 88W-91W. See the latest Public Advisories for
Barry via the WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and the AWIPS header
MIATCPAT2. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for Barry are available under
the WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. See
www.hurricanes.gov for more details also.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 22W from
05N-16N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is south of 10N and east of 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 44W from
15N44W to a 1010 mb low near 10N44W to 03N44W, moving west at around
10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in scatterometer data. Scattered
showers prevail within the low area. This system has a low chance
of tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 64W
from 04N-17N, moving west at around 10 kt. The wave is nicely
depicted in scatterometer data, as well as model guidance and
satellite signature. Scattered showers are prevailing over the
northern half of the wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 76W from
04N-17N, moving west at around 10 kt. At this time, no
significant convection is noted with this wave due to dry air and
subsidence.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 10N23W to 10N31W. The ITCZ begins near 10N31W to 10N39W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 10N48W to 08N59W. Aside from
the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above,
scattered showers are developing south of the ITCZ between 30W-
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The now Hurricane Barry is over the north central Gulf of Mexico.
Convection related to this system covers almost the whole western
half of the basin. See the Special Features section above for
details.

Scattered showers prevail across the far east Gulf east of 84W.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southeasterly winds
across the eastern half of the basin.

Barry will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.4N
92.4W this evening, inland to 31.6N 92.9W Sun morning, move inland
and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.0N 93.1W Sun evening,
inland to 34.3N 93.2W Mon morning, and 35.7N 93.0W Tue morning.
Barry will then become a remnant low as it moves to near 37.5N
92.5W early Wed, then dissipate Thu. Winds and seas will diminish
and subside across the basin Sun into early next week as high pres
ridging builds westward across the basin.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

Scattered showers are noted over the far northwest Caribbean
affecting western Cuba and adjacent waters. Subsidence is over
much of the central Caribbean inhibiting convection at this time.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
whole area.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
locally strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean through
the next few days. Winds will be fresh to occasionally strong
over the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical waves will continue moving
west, but only the second wave will enhance convection. The next
tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

Scattered showers are noted over the west Atlantic west of 77W. A
surface trough extends from 30N77W to 28N79W. To the east, a 1021
mb surface high is centered near 29N70W. A weak 1018 mb surface
low is analyzed near 28N64W with minimal convection. The tail end
of a stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N54W to
25N60W with scattered showers. Surface ridging covers the eastern
Atlantic.

A surface trough will form north of Hispaniola by Sun and move
west across the waters S of 27N through early Tue when it will
reach the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, high pressure will
dominate the region through the middle of next week, generally
bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except north of Hispaniola
where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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